Wheat supply logistics in wartime in Ukraine

Abstract

The year 2022 was marked for the world as the year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. The war caused considerable damage, not only to the Ukrainian economy, but also disrupted global economic relations. The agricultural sector was especially affected as agricultural enterprises cannot transfer their capacity to other, safer regions, like other sector enterprises, to conduct their activities. A significant part of the grain harvest was lost due to the war, so taking into account that Ukraine is one of the main exporters of grain, many countries did not receive the ordered deliveries. Among grains, in terms of value, wheat ranks third after corn and rice. Wheat is used not only for consumption but is also exported as seeds. Obstacles to harvesting, transportation, and export of wheat have become an extremely urgent issue for countries that are very dependent on the supplies of Ukrainian wheat. The purpose of the study is to develop a model of the Ukrainian wheat supply system in war conditions for groups of importing countries in terms of the volume and stability of supplies, to ensure food security. The ABC-XYZ analysis was used while conducting the study. This method is based on the use of statistical data on the volume of Ukrainian wheat supplies to other countries. According to this method, all countries are grouped in terms of their order volume and stability. This approach indicates the countries that are strategically important for Ukraine as a wheat exporter. As the results of the analysis show, at the beginning of the war, the behaviours of the wheat-importing countries changed. If they could previously diversify the wheat supply channels, choosing the most profitable channels for themselves, since 2022, many countries have cancelled supplies of wheat from the Russian Federation and have become more dependent on other producers. In addition, unfavourable weather conditions and the desire of powerful wheat producers to create additional stocks of wheat for their own needs have been added. It was found that such countries as Egypt, Indonesia, Morocco, Yemen, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Libya are most dependent on Ukrainian wheat and have positive previous experiences of cooperation with Ukraine. The presented logistics model of wheat supply can be adapted to new changes, but the ultimate goal of its implementation should be to indicate conditions to ensure global food security.