What will it take to stabilize the Colorado River?

Wheeler, Kevin; Udall, B.; Wang, Jian; Kuhn, Eric; Salehabadi, Homa; Schmidt, John C.

doi:10.1126/science.abo4452

Cited by 60 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 7 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…This dry spell would stress test the many reservoir and floodplain management practices predicated on a past climate [8,19]. The ongoing "Millenium Drought" starting around 2000 in the southwestern U.S. [21] is likely the best analog for the level of stress and impacts a projected additionally drier and warmer future would bring to water resources, ecosystems, and society. Both the current situation and the projected scenario examined here highlight that infrastructure could benefit from retrofitting and new construction to enable operations supported by increasingly available real-time monitoring [56,57] and forecasting of atmospheric and land surface conditions [58][59][60] to more effectively capture, convey, and store [61,62] mountain-generated runoff.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the early 2000s, expectations of a warming climate are being met or have been exceeded [14][15][16], with the severity broadly on par with centennial-scale duration Medieval megadroughts [17,18]. Following 20 years of aridification combined with increasing demand and a management system developed during a wetter and cooler western U.S. climate [16,[18][19][20], major snow-fed reservoir levels in the Upper and Lower Colorado Basin are at all-time lows, threatening water supply and energy generation [21]. Negative economic and health impacts of these outcomes on society (especially in underprivileged and disadvantaged communities [22]) and ecosystems west-wide are increasingly compounded by other warming-induced changes: more frequent and extreme wildfire and air pollution episodes, heat waves, and flooding [23,24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decline in Seasonal Snow During a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Hatchett¹,

Rhoades²,

McEvoy³

2022

Preprint

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Snowpack loss in midlatitude mountains is ubiquitously projected by Earth system models, though the magnitudes, persistence and time horizons of decline vary. Using daily downscaled hydroclimate and snow projections we examine changes in snow seasonality across the U.S. Pacific Southwest region during a simulated severe 20-year dry spell in the 21st century (2051–2070) developed as part of the 4th California Climate Change Assessment to provide a "stress test" for water resources. Across California’s mountains, substantial declines (30–100% loss) in median peak annual snow water equivalent accompany changes in snow seasonality throughout the region compared to the historic period. We find 80% of historic seasonal snowpacks transition to ephemeral conditions. Subsetting empirical-statistical wildfire projections for California by snow seasonality transition regions indicates a two-to-four-fold increase in burned area, consistent with recent observations of high elevation wildfires following extended drought conditions. By analyzing six of the major California snow-fed river systems we demonstrate snowpack reductions and seasonality transitions result in concomitant declines in annual runoff (47-58% of historic values). The negative impacts to statewide water supply reliability by the projected dry spell will likely be magnified by changes in snowpack seasonality and increased wildfire activity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decline in Seasonal Snow During a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Hatchett¹,

Rhoades²,

McEvoy³

2022

Preprint

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“…The ongoing drought in the western US represents the driest 22-yr period since at least 800 CE [7] and is testing the resilience of water management systems. For example, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, the two largest reservoirs in the United States by volume, are at their lowest stage since completion [8]. The situation is similar in northern Mexico, where the Las Virgenes reservoir reached as low as 17% of capacity, placing it at risk of structural failure, amid a decrease in planted area due to low irrigation storage [9].…”

Section: Orographic Amplification Of Enso Signalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Orographic amplification of El Niño teleconnections on winter precipitation across western North America

Stagge

Torbenson²,

Sung

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection pattern drives interannual changes in winter precipitation across western North America, but these effects are entangled with orographic effects, caused by mountainous terrain, and long-term climate trends. This study employs a novel, spatially distributed non-linear spline model to isolate ENSO impacts from these other factors. We find that topography exaggerates the underlying effect of ENSO, driving larger precipitation changes at high elevations along western slopes. Further, we detected a north-south precipitation dipole, which exhibited incremental ENSO effects in the southern region, but more binary effects in the north. Spatial extents for positive and negative ENSO phases also varied based on topography. Confirmation of precipitation lapse rates and multi-decadal precipitation trends provides greater confidence in disentangling the ENSO signal. Ultimately, these results provide greater nuance regarding ENSO effects on winter precipitation, which is critical for domestic water supplies, ecological flows, and agriculture.

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“…The Colorado River basin has a long history of water problems-conflict, competition, salinity, scarcity, and others -no more so than in the current crises of drought and overappropriation that have jointly led to the lowest main stem reservoir levels and largest cutbacks in history (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, 2012; Kuhn and Fleck, 2019;Salehabadi et al, 2020;Robison et al, 2021;Congressional Research Service, 2022;U.S. Department of Interior, 2022;Wheeler et al, 2022). Each water problem, large and small, has been shaped by the basin's elaborate water institutions, i.e., its norms, laws, policies, and organizations that enable, constrain, and regulate alternative courses of action (National Research Council, 1968;Ingram et al, 1984;Ostrom, 2008;Easter and McCann, 2010).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional levels of water management in the Colorado River basin region: A macro-historical geographic review

Wescoat

2023

Front. Water

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Complex water-stressed basins like the Colorado River in North America have multiple institutional levels of water management. Each institutional level is characterized by rules, organizations, and spatial jurisdictions that developed over decades to centuries to shape a dynamic multi-level system. After introducing the concept of institutional levels, and its relationship to geographic scales, this paper employs systematic bibliographic search methods to review their development in the Colorado River basin region. Results begin with the community level of water management from prehistoric Indian water cultures to early Hispanic water communities, 19th century water communities, and 20th century water organizations. Conflict among water communities shaped the state level of constitutional authority over water rights administration during the 19th century. Competition among states led in the 20th century to the interstate level of apportionment that often paralleled federal and tribal level water development policies, eventually leading to the international level of treaty relations between the U.S. and Mexico. This macro-historical geographic progression from institutions that were relatively small in size and early in time to those at higher levels and more recent in time offers insights into the multi-level institutional logic of the “law of the river” in the Colorado River basin region.

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What will it take to stabilize the Colorado River?

Abstract: A continuation of the current 23-year-long drought will require difficult decisions to prevent further decline

Cited by 60 publications

References 7 publications

Decline in Seasonal Snow During a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Decline in Seasonal Snow During a Projected 20-Year Dry Spell

Orographic amplification of El Niño teleconnections on winter precipitation across western North America

Institutional levels of water management in the Colorado River basin region: A macro-historical geographic review

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