What to expect from assisted reproductive technologies? Experts' forecasts for the next two decades

Alón, Ido; Guimón, José; Urbanos-Garrido, Rosa M.

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119722

Cited by 12 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…According to different national registries, IVF is currently producing, on average, around 30% birth rates per cycle with nondonor eggs for women younger than 35 years, while success rates decrease in more advanced age groups (SEF, 2016;CDC, 2018). According to experts, we may expect significant growth in these rates, up to 50% within 20 years, due to improvements in methods of embryo selection, incubation, laboratory conditions and quality control (Alon et al, 2019).…”

Section: Technical Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second International Summit on Human Genome Editing, 2018a). It means that, with further developments in genomics, we may expect a higher utility of PGD, although according to experts, it will primarily be related to elderly diseases which are mainly multifactorial (Alon et al, 2019).…”

Section: Technical Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some experts suggest that such an abundant supply of eggs could be attained by stem-cells derived gametes (Shulman & Bostrom, 2014;Greely, 2016), but this is yet an unclear technological enhancement. Overall, expert geneticists and gynecologists have shown low expectations for significant technological advances in eggs retrieval in the next two decades (Alon et al, 2019).…”

Section: Technical Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent demand forecasts (Alon et al, 2019) suggest that within 20 years, the percentage of IVF births could reach more than 14% in Israel and Spain, mainly due to age-related infertility. Moreover, approximately 40% of IVF cycles could involve PGD, meaning that, while it might not be the primary factor inducing the demand for IVF, PGD would become a very common add-on to treatments.…”

Section: Demand For Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Building on inputs from Delphi surveys and interviews, and grounded on a previous technology forecast based on a panel of physicians (Alon et al, 2019), we discuss the potential trajectories for the diffusion of ART, and present different scenarios which may assist in building up some anticipatory competence to enhance the regulatory process (Brown & Michael, 2003;Borup et al, 2006;Harmon, 2016). This paper also contributes to broader studies on the diffusion of innovation, in particular to the strand of the literature that relies on qualitative methods to evaluate health and innovation policy by jointly considering supply, demand, regulation and the interactions among them (Nemet, 2009;Hammarberg et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Contesting the Geneticization Thesis in Human Reproduction: Dealing with Spiral Shaped Processes and Technoscientific Imaginaries

Alón¹,

Guimón²,

Urbanos-Garrido³

2019

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This paper questions the potential shift of reproduction towards assisted reproductive technologies due to benefits provided by genetic manipulation of embryos. In order to examine the viability of such a shift and its implications from a regulatory perspective, we relied on two panels of experts from Israel and Spain, using the Delphi method and a series of in-depth interviews. We anticipate, at a first stage, a continuous-steady growth in the use of IVF, supplemented by preimplantation genetic diagnosis and the introduction of CRISPR/Cas. At a second stage, attracting a growing share of fertile people would require developments in genomics. While it is unclear whether these developments will fully materialize, they could be replaced by technoscientific imaginaries generating perceived benefits. We conclude that the regulation of reproductive genetics is becoming more critical and complex. The aim should be to ensure good practices and equity, while providing more information to the public. A broad and inclusive societal debate may overcome the difficulty of drawing a clear line between medical uses and non-medical uses of genetic selection and engineering and may contribute to finding the right balance between allowing autonomous decisions of patients and protecting the public interest.

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Section: Technical Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Technical Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%