What to do when the F10.7 goes out?

Elvidge, Sean; Themens, David R.; Brown, Matthew K.; Donegan-Lawley, Elizabeth Erin Amelia

doi:10.22541/essoar.167152023.36542032/v1

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…These limitations have led to observed discrepancies in model performance when using different indices, especially when representing TEC (Tariku, 2019). More significantly, in the context of blackouts in solar proxies, it is possible to reconstruct those proxies for operational usage using solar radio measurements in neighboring wavelengths (Elvidge et al, 2023), which provides additional robustness for space situational awareness, but exacerbates the effects of the already inherent limitations of the index due to imperfect reconstruction.…”

Section: Until the Advent Of Endeavors Such Of Solstice Aboard The Up...mentioning

confidence: 99%

On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance

Brandt,

Vega,

Ridley

2023

Preprint

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In the context of space weather forecasting, solar EUV irradiance specification is needed on multiple time scales, with associated uncertainty quantification for determining the accuracy of downstream parameters. Empirical models of irradiance often rely on parametric fits between irradiance in several bands and various solar indices. We build upon these empirical models by using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to represent solar irradiance. We apply the GAM approach in two steps: (1) A GAM is between FISM2 irradiance and solar indices F10.7, Revised Sunspot Number, and the Lyman-alpha solar index. (2) A second GAM is fit to model the residuals of the first GAM with respect to TIMED/SEE irradiance. We evaluate the performance of this approach during Solar Cycle 24 and compare it with FISM2, and show that mean relative irradiance error for integrated solar EUV irradiance is decreased from -3.459% for FISM2 to 0.04% using GAMs driven by known solar indices with a small increase in variance. We demonstrate negligible dependence of performance on solar cycle and season, and we assess the efficacy of the GAM approach across different wavelengths.

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Section: Until the Advent Of Endeavors Such Of Solstice Aboard The Up...mentioning

confidence: 99%

On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance

Brandt,

Vega,

Ridley

2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These limitations have led to observed discrepancies in model performance when using different indices, especially when representing TEC (Tariku, 2019). More significantly, in the context of blackouts in solar proxies, it is possible to reconstruct those proxies for operational usage using solar radio measurements in neighboring wavelengths (Elvidge et al., 2023), which provides additional robustness for space situational awareness, but exacerbates the effects of the already inherent limitations of the index due to imperfect reconstruction.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance

Brandt,

Vega,

Ridley

2024

Space Weather

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the context of space weather forecasting, solar EUV irradiance specification is needed on multiple time scales, with associated uncertainty quantification for determining the accuracy of downstream parameters. Empirical models of irradiance often rely on parametric fits between irradiance in several bands and various solar indices. We build upon these empirical models by using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to represent solar irradiance. We apply the GAM approach in two steps: (a) A GAM is fitted between FISM2 irradiance and solar indices F10.7, Revised Sunspot Number, and the Lyman‐α solar index. (b) A second GAM is fit to model the residuals of the first GAM with respect to FISM2 irradiance. We evaluate the performance of this approach during Solar Cycle 24 using GAMs driven by known solar indices as well as those forecasted 3 days ahead with an autoregressive modeling approach. We demonstrate negligible dependence of performance on solar cycle and season, and we assess the efficacy of the GAM approach across different wavelengths.

show abstract

What to do when the F10.7 goes out?

Cited by 2 publications

References 23 publications

On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance

On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance

On Generalized Additive Models for Representation of Solar EUV Irradiance

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