What structural factors have held back China's birth rate?

Yang, Liting; Guo, Jiahong; Cao, Shixiong

doi:10.1007/s10668-022-02723-7

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The urban population is one of the most critical determinants of city size and is molded by complex regional policy factors [33]. For example, China's birth control policies and household registration system significantly affected the birth rate and regional migration of the population, which ultimately affected the population size of a region [34,35]. A clear and strong correlation exists between urban population size and urban area, although determining the exact functional form of this relationship requires further study [36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupling Random Forest, Allometric Scaling, and Cellular Automata to Predict the Evolution of LULC under Various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2023

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Accurately estimating land-use demand is essential for urban models to predict the evolution of urban spatial morphology. Due to the uncertainties inherent in socioeconomic development, the accurate forecasting of urban land-use demand remains a daunting challenge. The present study proposes a modeling framework to determine the scaling relationship between the population and urban area and simulates the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC). An allometric scaling (AS) law and a Markov (MK) chain are used to predict variations in LULC. Random forest (RF) and cellular automata (CA) serve to calibrate the transition rules of change in LULC and realize its micro-spatial allocation (MKCARF-AS). Furthermore, this research uses several shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) as scenario storylines. The MKCARF-AS model is used to predict changes in LULC under various SSP scenarios in Jinjiang City, China, from 2020 to 2065. The results show that the figure of merit (FoM) and the urban FoM of the MKCARF-AS model improve by 3.72% and 4.06%, respectively, compared with the MKCAANN model during the 2005–2010 simulation period. For a 6.28% discrepancy between the predicted urban land-use demand and the actual urban land-use demand over the period 2005–2010, the urban FoM degrades by 21.42%. The growth of the permanent urban population and urban area in Jinjiang City follows an allometric scaling law with an exponent of 0.933 for the period 2005–2020, and the relative residual and R2 are 0.0076 and 0.9994, respectively. From 2020 to 2065, the urban land demand estimated by the Markov model is 19.4% greater than the urban area predicted under scenario SSP5. At the township scale, the different SSP scenarios produce significantly different spatial distributions of urban expansion rates. By coupling random forest and allometric scaling, the MKCARF-AS model substantially improves the simulation of urban land use.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coupling Random Forest, Allometric Scaling, and Cellular Automata to Predict the Evolution of LULC under Various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2023

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“…Previous studies also found that the marketisation, education level of females, and the percentages of tertiary and secondary industries are structural factors which contributed to the lower fertility rate, especially between 1990 to 2019. The reason for these is rising opportunity cost of employment, so less female choose to give birth children since these will affect their career plan and promotion [4]. As a result, the effectiveness of the policies is heavily related to the female's rights and the expense of raising children.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on the Impact of Implementing the Three Child Policy: Perspective from a Social and Economic

2023

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Over the past decade, China has seen a decline in birth rate as well as an aging population. In May,2021, Chinese government has announced three-child policy to further restore the demographic structure following the failure of two-child policy. Using the latest data collected from China National Bureau of Statistics, Statista, World bank and Global data, this paper examines the effect of the three-child policy on the raising fertility rate and on female labor market. According to the quantitative analysis, it is found that the three-child policy has been almost ineffective on increasing birth rate to date, and it did not improve the intention for the young couples to have more children. Based on the data, the policy indeed reduced female employment and worsened gender discrimination in workplace, which widened the gender wage gap. Therefore, these studies also provide some theoretical and practical measures to safeguard female employment rights and ensure sustainable development. Approaches in this paper are presented for better understand the policy consequences and promoting them.

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Complex nexus: Economic development, rural-to-urban migration, and transition to adulthood in China

Wang,

Tian

2024

Advances in Life Course Research

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What structural factors have held back China's birth rate?

Cited by 5 publications

References 30 publications

Coupling Random Forest, Allometric Scaling, and Cellular Automata to Predict the Evolution of LULC under Various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Coupling Random Forest, Allometric Scaling, and Cellular Automata to Predict the Evolution of LULC under Various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Research on the Impact of Implementing the Three Child Policy: Perspective from a Social and Economic

Complex nexus: Economic development, rural-to-urban migration, and transition to adulthood in China

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