What should be the baseline when calculating excess mortality? New approaches suggest that we have underestimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and previous winter peaks

Shkolnikov, Vladimir M.; Klimkin, Ilya; Jdanov, Dmitri A.; Galarza, Ainhoa Alústiza; Németh, László; Timonin, Sergey; Nepomuceno, Marília R.; Andreev, Evgeny; Leon, David A.

doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2022.101118

Cited by 22 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Thus, they offer a less confounded basis for comparing the total mortality outcome of a health crisis such as the pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to expected deaths in absence of a crisis. However, even when total deaths are known, determining the expected deaths (baseline in absence of crisis) involves considerable uncertainty (Kepp et al, 2022;Nepomuceno et al, 2022;Schöley, 2021;Shkolnikov et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020–2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden

Kepp

Björk

Emilsson

et al. 2023

SSM - Population Health

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020–2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden

Kepp

Björk

Emilsson

et al. 2023

SSM - Population Health

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“…However, other approaches in computing baseline mortality level have been proposed [36][37][38], and these could be adopted in order to obtain alternative perspectives.…”

Section: Strengths and Limitations Of The Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial variation in excess mortality across Europe: a cross-sectional study of 561 regions in 21 countries

Bonnet

Grigoriev

Sauerberg

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Objective: To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level. Design: Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data. Setting: The vital statistics systems of 21 European countries. Participants: The entire population of 561 spatial units in 21 European countries. Main Outcome Measures: Losses of life expectancy at ages 0 and 60 for males and females. Results: Evidence was found of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, while only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years, and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. Geographic clusters of high mortality were found in Northern Italia, Spain and Poland, while clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden. Conclusions: Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.

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“…Nevertheless, adjusting estimates for these numbers is essential if the goal is to understand COVID-19 fatality better. There are already models available that can adjust for influenza-related avoided mortality 10 , and new approaches have been proposed for use in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic 11 . For displaced mortality, partial adjustments can be made by excluding mortality deficits when computing the cumulative number of excess deaths over the months of the observation period.…”

Section: Complete Monthlymentioning

confidence: 99%

Global estimates of excess deaths from COVID-19

Acosta¹

2022

Nature

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Knowing how COVID-19 affects global mortality rates is crucial if we are to understand the factors that govern its spread and severity, and to be able to evaluate the effectiveness of government responses to the pandemic. In May, a team of researchers led by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs published the first results from their attempt to estimate global, COVID-19-related death rates. Writing in Nature, Msemburi et al. 1 present these estimates in more detail.

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What should be the baseline when calculating excess mortality? New approaches suggest that we have underestimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and previous winter peaks

Cited by 22 publications

References 43 publications

The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020–2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden

The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020–2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden

Spatial variation in excess mortality across Europe: a cross-sectional study of 561 regions in 21 countries

Global estimates of excess deaths from COVID-19

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