What’s Work Got to Do with It? How Precarity Influences Radical Party Support in France and the Netherlands

Abstract

The rising support for radical parties in Europe has triggered a new interest in the political sociology of voting and how voters with socio-economic insecurity are moving away from establishment politics. In this article, we apply Standing’s concept of ‘precarity’ to capture insecurity among ordinary voters and thereby expand the individual socio-economic explanations behind the vote for radical populist right (RPR) and radical left (RL) parties. We develop a multidimensional measure of precarity to capture subjective labour market insecurity in its different manifestations. The article examines the influence of precarity on voting in two countries – France and the Netherlands – that, in the 2017 elections, saw the culmination of a decline in support for establishment parties and a rise in support for both RPR and RL parties. We use panels of voters collected during these elections through online Voting Advice Applications, weighted against national census benchmarks. We identify and assess the role of two dimensions of precarity: ‘precarity of tenure’ and ‘precarity at work’. We find that in both France and the Netherlands precarity is, overall, negatively correlated with voting for established parties and positively correlated with voting for RPR and RL parties. Furthermore, our investigation shows that ‘precarity at work’ is more significant in explaining voting support than the more widely investigated ‘precarity of tenure’. Our results stress the importance of assessing how subjective work insecurity explains voting and support for RPR and RL parties.

Explaining The Anti‐Immigrant Sentiment Through a Spatial Analysis: A Study of The 2019 European Elections in Italy

“…Although it is not possible to control for the role of the precarity at work and the precarity of tenure (as suggested by Antonucci et al . 2021), this result may suggest the role of competition over scarce resources in favouring the vote for Lega.…”

“…Inner municipalities are much more prone to the Lega vote, even when jointly controlling for both the share of foreigners living there and specific NUTS-2level region fixed effects. Although it is not possible to control for the role of the precarity at work and the precarity of tenure (as suggested by Antonucci et al 2021), this result may suggest the role of competition over scarce resources in favouring the vote for Lega.…”

“…However, a common finding is that both individual/social characteristics and contextual/geographical variables matter in explaining the willingness to vote for extreme right parties. For example, Antonucci et al (2021) compare the 2017 elections in France and the Netherlands and, using a panel of voters collected during previous elections, suggest that individual precarity (expressed as both 'precarity at work' and 'precarity of tenure') can explain the support for more radical parties, and the moving away from establishment party support.…”

“…For example, Antonucci et al . (2021) compare the 2017 elections in France and the Netherlands and, using a panel of voters collected during previous elections, suggest that individual precarity (expressed as both ‘precarity at work’ and ‘precarity of tenure’) can explain the support for more radical parties, and the moving away from establishment party support.…”

Economic inequalities and discontent in European cities

“…On the other hand, the majority of urban jobs are for those at the bottom of the skill and education distribution, frequently penalized by unsecure and precarious jobs, i.e., gig jobs 22 . Moreover, interpersonal and spatial inequalities have been documented as one of the primary sources of individual and political discontent [23][24][25] .…”