What’s next in hospital digitization? A Delphi-based scenario study

Abstract

The digital transformation has induced significant social and economic changes, impacting services of general interest, including healthcare. National healthcare systems serve as crucial pillars of social and prosperity security, necessitating adaptation in the face of digital transformation. Among healthcare institutions, hospitals play a vital role due to the nature and scope of their care services. This study presents a scenario-based investigation to explore the forthcoming changes in the healthcare environment and their potential effects on inpatient care. The study employed an iterative approach, commencing with an exploratory survey of experts to identify impact areas and descriptors. Subsequently, a two-round Delphi survey, involving a four-member stakeholder expert group, was conducted to evaluate and refine the identified parameters. A fuzzy clustering algorithm was utilized in the study to derive four different scenarios. These scenarios elucidate alternative development paths and describe the characteristics that may lead to these developments. The study’s findings offer valuable insights for formulating proactive recommendations and interventions to effectively address future developments in healthcare.