What's at stake? A human well-being based proposal for assessing risk of loss and damage from climate change

Abstract

Current scientific discourse on the assessment of loss and damage from climate change focuses primarily on what is straightforwardly quantifiable, such as monetary value, numbers of casualties, or destroyed homes. However, the range of possible harms induced by climate change is much broader, particularly as regards residual risks that occur beyond limits to adaptation. In international climate policy, this has been institutionalized within the Loss and Damage discourse, which emphasizes the importance of non-economic loss and damage (NELD). Nevertheless, NELDs are often neglected in loss and damage assessments, being intangible and difficult to quantify. As a consequence, to date, no systematic concept or indicator framework exists that integrates market-based and non-market-based loss and damage. In this perspective, we suggest assessing risk of loss and damage using a climate change risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) framework: the Impact Chain method. This highly adaptable method has proven successful in unraveling complex risks in socio-ecological systems through a combination of engaging (political) stakeholders and performing quantitative data analysis. We suggest expanding the framework's logic to include not only the sources but also the consequences of risk by conceptualizing loss and damage as harm to nine domains of human well-being. Our approach is consistent with the risk conceptualization by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Conceptualization and systematic assessment of the full spectrum of imminent loss and damage allows a more comprehensive anticipation of potential impacts on human well-being, identifying vulnerable groups and providing essential evidence for transformative and comprehensive climate risk management.