What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

Martínez, Pilar; Blanco, María; Doorslaer, Benjamin Van; Ramos, Fabien; Ceglar, Andrej

doi:10.5424/sjar/2017153-9899

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Based on our analysis, derived from a series of global gridded biophysical and climate model ensembles coupled with a global agricultural market model, it can be concluded that market adjustments are important when analysing climate change impacts in the agricultural sector. Our results are in line with the findings of Nelson et al (2014), Baldos and Hertel (2015), Blanco et al (2017) and Martinez et al (2017), who emphasize the importance of considering agricultural market interactions when analysing the overall impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector. As we consider a larger scenario ensemble and consistently different combinations of climate and biophysical models within a global context, our analysis can be considered more robust than previous ones.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

“…adjust the production depending on the price elasticities estimated by Jansson and Heckelei (2011). Accordingly, CAPRI is suitable for a comprehensive analysis of climate change effects considering market adjustments and was used in several multimodel assessments at global level (Hasegawa et al 2018, Van Meijl et al 2018, and has also been used before to assess the impacts of climate change on EU agriculture (Shrestha et al 2013, Delincé et al 2015, Martinez et al 2017. However, in the previous studies focusing on the EU, projections for non-EU regions were mainly based only on a single crop growth model and the analysis was primarily done at EU aggregated level and not considering regional aspects (for instance, differentiating between Northern and Southern European impacts).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic impacts of climate change on EU agriculture: will the farmers benefit from global climate change?

Hristov,

Pérez Domínguez,

Fellmann

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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This paper analyses how climate change might impact EU agricultural markets by mid-century, considering a large ensemble of climate change projections from different models, market adjustments and trade feedbacks. Applying consistent climate change driven productivity shocks to a global multi-commodity agricultural market model we show that the negative direct effects from climate change on crop production in the EU could be offset by market and trade adjustments. The simulations reveal that climate change has heterogeneous impacts across regions. EU farming sector, in particular, might actually benefit from climate change as the impacts on agricultural productivity are expected to be more severe in important non-EU production regions such as US, Russia and Ukraine, depending on the crop. Higher producer prices for important crops such as wheat, barley, grain maize, rice and soybeans, lead to an increase in EU production and exports. For instance EU wheat production could increase by 13% and exports by 28%, with 19% higher farm incomes on average than in a business-as-usual situation. Our study has several limitations. In particular, we do not consider CO2 fertilization effects and direct effect from climate change on livestock sector, climate variability and extreme weather effects. Notwithstanding, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of climate change impacts across regions, specifically Northern versus Southern Europe, and the importance of market and trade adjustments as economic adaptation mechanisms to climate change.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic impacts of climate change on EU agriculture: will the farmers benefit from global climate change?

Hristov,

Pérez Domínguez,

Fellmann

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Whilst, as described above, the index does not extensively integrate metrics related to agriculture or the food system, results show many EU countries are more exposed to climate-related risks than the global average. Martinez et al (2017) use agro-economic and climate models to explore near-future impacts of global crop yield and price changes on the EU. Despite large regional variations, overall average global production for staple crops increases due to CO 2 fertilisation effects.…”

Section: Assessments Of the Eu As A Regional Blocmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Benzie et al (2019) provide examples of some existing mechanisms for integrating concerns about TCRs such as the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, EU Adaptation Strategy, Water Framework Directive, EU Cohesion Fund and Structural Funds. Some authors suggest that harmonised trade policy and trade adjustments through market mechanisms will be adequate to mitigate against agricultural yield and price changes (Martinez et al, 2017;Hertel and Baldos, 2016;Elbehri et al, 2015). However, uncertainty exists overall in the role of trade, and thus trade policy, in mitigating food price volatility (Ferguson and Gars, 2020).…”

Section: Opportunities For Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Report on preliminary impact and policy insights from model and sectoral case study analysis: trade-linked cross-border impacts

West,

Ebrey,

Simpson

et al. 2023

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Trade-linked cross-border climate impacts have the potential to severely disrupt the European economy. Yet, the research landscape that surrounds these potential impacts remains in a relatively nascent stage. Importantly, whilst quantitative approaches can be applied in isolation to develop our understanding of cascading cross-border impacts, these should ideally be supplemented by the broader development of knowledge as to how initial climate triggers might evolve via trade systems, might interact with the actions and activities of supply chain actors, and how the wider policy landscape might act as an enabler or barrier to EU climate resilience. The objective of this deliverable is to provide a set of preliminary policy insights resulting from a summary and synthesis of outputs from WP3 of the CASCADES project. Outputs of WP3 encompass the quantitative results of models applied to the exploration of the impacts of climate change on EU trade-linked systems, and qualitative analysis of stakeholder viewpoints – supplemented by information from the wider literature – which highlights key climate-linked concerns, potential responses, and interactions with policy. The deliverable is divided below into three main sections. The first provides a synthesis and related policy implications based on a summary of the outcomes of research activities conducted in CASCADES WP3. Then, the remainder of the report is divided into discrete summaries of the analysis conducted. Analysis Section 1 summarises the quantitative outcomes of WP3 models. Analysis Section 2 summarises the qualitative components of WP3 within the form of three focal trade-linked case studies: a) food systems, b) the soy supply chain, c) energy transition minerals. The depth and breadth of these three case studies differs (more explanation on scope of coverage and methods applied can be found in Analysis Section 2). The Deliverable overall is intended to act as a starting point for (for food systems and soy supply chains) a more in-depth exploration of the policy environment that surrounds trade-linked cross-border impacts that will link to WP6 of the CASCADES project.

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The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050

et al. 2019

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In face of meeting Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for water-food-energy-ecosystems nexus, integrated assessments are great means to measure the impact of global change on natural resources. In this study, we evaluate the impact of future climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) and future sharedsocioeconomic Pathways (SSP2) on land use, water consumption and food trade under water regulation policy scenarios (INVEST-EXPLOIT-ENVIRONMENT). We have used the land use model GLOBIOM, and constrained it with water availability, environmental flow requirements (EFRs) and water use from agriculture and industry and households (simulated with LPJml, EPIC and WaterGap models). Here, we show that an increase in land use by 100Mha would be required to double food production by 2050, in order to meet projected food demand. International trade would need to nearly triple to meet future crop demand, with an additional 10-20% trade flow from waterabundant regions to water-scarce regions to sustain EFRs on a global scale.

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What role will climate change play in EU agricultural markets? An integrated assessment taking into account carbon fertilization effects

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

Economic impacts of climate change on EU agriculture: will the farmers benefit from global climate change?

Economic impacts of climate change on EU agriculture: will the farmers benefit from global climate change?

Report on preliminary impact and policy insights from model and sectoral case study analysis: trade-linked cross-border impacts

The global nexus of food–trade–water sustaining environmental flows by 2050

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