What predicts adherence to COVID-19 government guidelines? Longitudinal analyses of 51,000 UK adults

Wright, Liam; Steptoe, Andrew

doi:10.1101/2020.10.19.20215376

Cited by 42 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…However, there is growing evidence that many contacts of cases are unable to effectively quarantine for the entirety of this period, particularly those unable to work from home, or those caring for vulnerable people. 2 The increasing availability of testing, particularly rapid, low-cost lateral flow antigen (LFA) tests, 3 , 4 opens up the possibility of shorter periods of quarantine when combined with a negative test on exit (a test and release strategy), or even the avoidance of quarantine entirely if it is replaced with daily testing. If effective, both these strategies have the potential to substantially reduce the burden of quarantine on uninfected contacts, which could simultaneously improve quarantine adherence and reduce the economic, personal, financial, and social costs of the current policy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Quilty

Clifford

Hellewell

et al. 2021

The Lancet Public Health

177

180

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Background In most countries, contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases are asked to quarantine for 14 days after exposure to limit asymptomatic onward transmission. While theoretically effective, this policy places a substantial social and economic burden on both the individual and wider society, which might result in low adherence and reduced policy effectiveness. We aimed to assess the merit of testing contacts to avert onward transmission and to replace or reduce the length of quarantine for uninfected contacts. MethodsWe used an agent-based model to simulate the viral load dynamics of exposed contacts, and their potential for onward transmission in different quarantine and testing strategies. We compared the performance of quarantines of differing durations, testing with either PCR or lateral flow antigen (LFA) tests at the end of quarantine, and daily LFA testing without quarantine, against the current 14-day quarantine strategy. We also investigated the effect of contact tracing delays and adherence to both quarantine and self-isolation on the effectiveness of each strategy.Findings Assuming moderate levels of adherence to quarantine and self-isolation, self-isolation on symptom onset alone can prevent 35% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-59) of onward transmission potential from secondary cases. 14 days of post-exposure quarantine reduces transmission by 48% (95% UI 18-79). Quarantine with release after a negative PCR test 7 days after exposure might avert a similar proportion (50%, 95% UI 23-80; risk ratio [RR] 1•02, 95% UI 0•88-1•41) to that of the 14-day quarantine period, as would quarantine with a negative LFA test 7 days after exposure (49%, 95% UI 20-78; RR 1•00, 0•82-1•28) or daily LFA testing without quarantine for 5 days after tracing (50%, 95% UI 24-79; RR 1•04, 0•69-1•79) if all tests are returned negative. A stronger effect might be possible if individuals isolate more strictly after a positive test and if contacts can be notified faster.Interpretation Testing might allow for a substantial reduction in the length of, or replacement of, quarantine in the control of onwards transmission from contacts of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals. Decreasing test and trace delays and increasing adherence will further increase the effectiveness of these strategies. Further research is required to empirically evaluate the potential costs (increased transmission risk, false reassurance) and benefits (reduction in the burden of quarantine, increased adherence) of such strategies before adoption as policy.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Quilty

Clifford

Hellewell

et al. 2021

The Lancet Public Health

177

180

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The high adherence can be explained by the high governmental trust given in Scandinavian countries [4]. This trust is discussed as the most important driver for following governmental recommendations [5].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Governmental recommendations in combating the spread of COVID-19 require citizens to make changes in their behavior. Factors that influence compliance mentioned in the literature are trust and confidence in the government, knowledge about the risk, social experience, mental health and wellbeing [5]. Trust in the government can assure citizens that guidelines are necessary and effective [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Predicts Adherence to Governmental COVID-19 Measures among Danish Students?

Berg‐Beckhoff

Guldager

Andersen

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Knowledge on compliance with governmental recommendations in combating the spread of COVID-19 in different groups is important to target efforts. This study investigated the adherence to the governmental implemented COVID-19 measures and its predictors in Danish university students, a not-at-risk group for COVID-19 mortality and normally characterized by many social contacts. As part of the COVID-19 International Student Wellbeing Study, a survey on socio-demographic situation, study information, living arrangements, lifestyle behaviors, stress, questions about COVID-19 infection and knowledge and concern about COVID-19 infection was sent via email to relevant university students in Denmark in May, 2020 (n = 2.945). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis was employed. Our results showed that around 60% of the students were not concerned about COVID-19, while 68% reported that they followed governmental measures. The main facilitators for following the recommendations were older age, concern about COVID-19 and depression, while barriers were living in a student hall, being physical active or reporting mental stress. Only 9% of the variation in adhering to governmental recommendations could be explained by the analyzed predictors. Results may inform health communication. Emotionally appealing information rather than knowledge-based information may be more effective in motivating students to follow COVID-19 measures.

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“…However, while civic scientific literacy (the knowledge of scientific facts, the ability to reason scientifically, and an understanding of how science works 161 Additionally, endorsements of theories such as COVID-19 conspiracy theories can often be ideologically motivated 162 and be found in groups with lower levels of psychological well-being, education and income 5,22,163 , and information may be rejected on the basis that it threatens one's worldview 164 , meaning that focusing on building trust rather than focusing solely on arguing about facts may be a more effective pathway. For example, trust in government predicted adherence to guidelines over everything else in 51,000 adults in the United Kingdom, in a longitudinal study 165 .…”

Section: Applied Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Antecedents and consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: a systematic review

Mulukom¹,

Pummerer²,

Alper³

et al. 2020

Preprint

109

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COVID-19 conspiracy theories emerged almost immediately after the beginning of the pandemic, and the number of believers does not appear to decline. Believing in these theories can negatively affect adherence to safety guidelines and vaccination intentions, potentially endangering the lives of many. Thus, one part in successfully fighting the pandemic is to understand the antecedents and consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs, which are here presented in a rapid review summarizing research from more than 28 countries. We evaluate the contribution of individual difference variables (demographic variables, personality traits, coping with threat and uncertainty), beliefs, biases, and attitudes (epistemically suspect beliefs, thinking styles and cognitive biases, attitudes towards science), and social factors (group identities, trust in authorities, social media) to COVID-19 conspiracy theories. We discuss the consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs in regard to safeguarding behaviours (hygiene, distancing, and mask-wearing), self-centred (hoarding) and misguided behaviours (pseudoscientific practices), vaccination intentions, mental health and negative social consequences (e.g., discrimination and violence). Differences between countries as well as various conspiracy theories are considered. Summarising, we suggest that belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories is boosted by low levels of trust in a context of threat and low levels of comprehensive, accessible information in a context of uncertainty and unknowns. We conclude that research is urgently needed to address potential interventions to (re-)establish trust and provide accessible information about COVID-19.

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What predicts adherence to COVID-19 government guidelines? Longitudinal analyses of 51,000 UK adults

Cited by 42 publications

References 55 publications

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

What Predicts Adherence to Governmental COVID-19 Measures among Danish Students?

Antecedents and consequences of COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs: a systematic review

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