What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter <scp>NAO</scp>?

Kent, Chris; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

doi:10.1002/asl.1146

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Skillful prediction of MJO teleconnections are vital to skillful seasonal forecasting in the extratropics (Kent et al., 2022), which in turn impacts on various industries (Palmer, 2002), including transportation (Karpechko et al., 2015; Palin et al., 2016), agriculture (Cantelaube & Terres, 2005; Challinor et al., 2005) and energy (Bloomfield et al., 2021; Clark et al., 2017). Finding clear evidence of decadal variability in the extratropical response to the MJO is a key step toward improved MJO‐induced predictability in the extratropics and opens exciting opportunities for further refinement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, deterministic weather prediction is skillful up to a lead time of approximately one to two weeks in the extratropics, however this lead time can be extended by considering the effects of modes such as the MJO (Kent et al., 2022; Nardi et al., 2020), Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO; Nardi et al., 2020) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; Patricola et al., 2020). The signature teleconnection patterns produced by these modes provide predictive skill on sub‐seasonal to seasonal time scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decadal Variability of the Extratropical Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Skinner,

Matthews,

Stevens

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub‐seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation, temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997, intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal Variability of the Extratropical Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Skinner,

Matthews,

Stevens

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Skillful prediction of MJO teleconnections are vital to skillful seasonal forecasting in the extratropics (Kent et al, 2022), which in turn impacts on various industries (Palmer, 2002), including transportation (Karpechko et al, 2015;Palin et al, 2016), agriculture (Cantelaube & Terres, 2005;Challinor et al, 2005) and energy (Bloomfield et al, 2021;Clark et al, 2017). Finding clear evidence of decadal variability in the extratropical response to the MJO is a key step toward improved MJO-induced predictability in the extratropics and opens exciting opportunities for further refinement.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Skinner

Matthews

Stevens

2023

Preprint

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The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a key source of predictability for extratropical weather through its teleconnection patterns. These MJO teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5 reanalysis data is used to show that the boreal winter MJO teleconnection pattern in the northern hemisphere has changed in recent decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Comparisons are made with ENSO-modulated interannual variability, showing considerable differences to the observed decadal scale variability. Changes are seen in both the circulation response and consequently in temperature and precipitation. In particular, from 1997 cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United States, due to MJO convection over the western Pacific, which were not present 20 years previously.

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“…Despite improvements in dynamical models, accurate predictions of the NAO remain a great challenge, particularly at long lead times. Technical forecasting of NAO by the operational forecasting dynamical system GloSea5 is possible on short-term (<5 days), medium-term (1-2 weeks), and sub-seasonal time scales, but the monthly forecasts represent the technology gap [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NAO Seasonal Forecast Using a Multivariate Air–Sea Coupled Deep Learning Model Combined with Causal Discovery

Jiang

Yuan

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a major climatic phenomenon in the Northern Hemisphere, but the underlying air–sea interaction and physical mechanisms remain elusive. Despite successful short-term forecasts using physics-based numerical models, longer-term forecasts of NAO continue to pose a challenge. In this study, we employ advanced data-driven causal discovery techniques to explore the causality between multiple ocean–atmosphere processes and NAO. We identify the best NAO predictors based on this causality analysis and develop NAO-MCD, a multivariate air–sea coupled model that incorporates causal discovery to provide 1–6 month lead seasonal forecasts of NAO. Our results demonstrate that the selected predictors are strongly associated with NAO development, enabling accurate forecasts of NAO. NAO-MCD significantly outperforms conventional numerical models and provides reliable seasonal forecasts of NAO, particularly for winter events. Moreover, our model extends the range of accurate forecasts, surpassing state-of-the-art performance at 2- to 6-month lead-time NAO forecasts, substantially outperforming conventional numerical models.

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What potential for improving sub‐seasonal predictions of the winter NAO?

Cited by 3 publications

References 60 publications

Decadal Variability of the Extratropical Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Decadal Variability of the Extratropical Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NAO Seasonal Forecast Using a Multivariate Air–Sea Coupled Deep Learning Model Combined with Causal Discovery

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