What Lies Beneath

Goudarzi, Sara

doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1116-11

“…When grazing livestock or wildlife subsequently ingest these spores, the spores can germinate and thus continue the infection cycle. This phenomenon has been documented at the animal burial sites of previous epizootics 21 , 23 , 64 . The warming Arctic, with its attendant changes in the presence of ice and water in the landscape, has also been shown to significantly modify the migration routes of indigenous pastoralist communities 65 , as well the migratory patterns of wild ungulate species such as caribou 66 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes

Walsh

¹

,

Smalen

²

,

Mor

³

2018

Sci Rep

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Climate change is impacting ecosystem structure and function, with potentially drastic downstream effects on human and animal health. Emerging zoonotic diseases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate and biodiversity disturbance. Anthrax is an archetypal zoonosis that manifests its most significant burden on vulnerable pastoralist communities. The current study sought to investigate the influence of temperature increases on geographic anthrax suitability in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North, where observed climate impact has been rapid. This study also explored the influence of climate relative to more traditional factors, such as livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance, in demarcating risk. Machine learning was used to model anthrax suitability in northern latitudes. The model identified climate, livestock density and wild ungulate species richness as the most influential features in predicting suitability. These findings highlight the significance of warming temperatures for anthrax ecology in northern latitudes, and suggest potential mitigating effects of interventions targeting megafauna biodiversity conservation in grassland ecosystems, and animal health promotion among small to midsize livestock herds.

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“…First, warming trends in the Arctic have been associated with substantial permafrost melt(60-62), which may operate directly in the infection cycle by thawing wild or domestic ruminant carcasses, or their previously frozen tissues or body fluids, and subsequently releasing spores into the soil and activating new growth(11, 63). This phenomenon has been documented at the animal burial sites of previous epizootics(10, 12, 64). Second, warming in semi-arid steppe or shrubland may increase dry conditions that can be favorable to anthrax spore preservation, dissemination and activation in the middle and southerly northern latitudes, particularly when summer droughts are punctuated with intermittent precipitation(17-19).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 70%

Climatic influence on the anthrax niche in warming northern latitudes

Mg

¹

,

Aw

²

,

Sm

³

2017

Preprint

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Climate change is impacting ecosystem structure and function, with potentially drastic downstream effects on human and animal health. Emerging zoonotic diseases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate and biodiversity disturbance. Anthrax is an archetypal zoonosis that manifests its most significant burden on vulnerable pastoralist communities. The current study sought to investigate the influence of temperature increases on the landscape suitability of anthrax in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North, where observed climate impact has been rapid. This study also explored the influence of climate relative to more traditional factors, such as livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance, in demarcating high risk landscapes. Machine learning was used to model landscape suitability as the ecological niche of anthrax in northern latitudes. The model identified climate, livestock density and wild ungulate species richness as the most influential landscape features in predicting suitability. These findings highlight the significance of warming temperatures for anthrax ecology in northern latitudes, and suggest potential mitigating effects of interventions targeting megafauna biodiversity conservation in grassland ecosystems, and animal health promotion among small to midsize livestock herds.Significance StatementWe present evidence that a warming climate may be associated with the current distribution of anthrax risk in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North. Moreover, projected warming over the coming decades was associated with substantive expansion of this risk. In addition, livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance were also influential to anthrax risk. While these results are sobering for the future health of livestock and pastoralist communities in the northern latitudes, the coincident modulating effect of ungulate biodiversity may suggest targeted ecosystem conservation as a possible buffer against a growing anthrax niche.

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“…When uncovered, the spores can develop into an infective stage, infecting grazing animals. In one recent example due to the thawing tundra, a study based on DNA sequencing and using protein analysis to categorise permafrost-dwelling microorganisms showed that the release of infective spores from old buried animal carcases caused an outbreak of anthrax in Yamal, Russian Federation, that killed approximately 2500 reindeer and caused many human cases, of which one was fatal [23]. Other diseases in this category may be wind-borne and mainly occur following drought, with q-fever being a relevant example.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying climate-sensitive infectious diseases in animals and humans in Northern regions

Omazic

¹

,

Bylund

²

,

Boqvist

³

et al. 2019

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BackgroundGeneral knowledge on climate change effects and adaptation strategies has increased significantly in recent years. However, there is still a substantial information gap regarding the influence of climate change on infectious diseases and how these diseases should be identified. From a One Health perspective, zoonotic infections are of particular concern. The climate in Northern regions is changing faster than the global average. This study sought to identify climate-sensitive infectious diseases (CSIs) of relevance for humans and/or animals living in Northern regions. Inclusion criteria for CSIs were constructed using expert assessments. Based on these principles, 37 potential CSIs relevant for Northern regions were identified. A systematic literature search was performed in three databases using an explicit stepwise approach to determine whether the literature supports selection of these 37 potential CSIs.ResultsIn total, 1275 nominated abstracts were read and categorised using predefined criteria. Results showed that arthropod vector-borne diseases in particular are recognised as having potential to expand their distribution towards Northern latitudes and that tick-borne encephalitis and borreliosis, midge-borne bluetongue and the parasitic infection fasciolosis can be classified as climate-sensitive. Many of the other potential CSIs considered are affected by extreme weather events, but could not be clearly classified as climate-sensitive. An additional literature search comparing awareness of climate influences on potential CSIs between 1997–2006 and 2007–2016 showed an increase in the number of papers mentioning effects of climate change.ConclusionsThe four CSIs identified in this study could be targeted in a systematic surveillance programme in Northern regions. It is evident that climate change can affect the epidemiology and geographical range of many infectious diseases, but there were difficulties in identifying additional CSIs, most likely because other factors may be of equal or greater importance. However, climate-ecological dynamics are constantly under change, and therefore diseases may fall in or out of the climate-sensitive definition over time. There is increasing awareness in the literature of the effects of climate change on infectious diseases over time.

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What Lies Beneath

Cited by 10 publications

References 0 publications

Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes

Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes

Climatic influence on the anthrax niche in warming northern latitudes

Identifying climate-sensitive infectious diseases in animals and humans in Northern regions

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