What is the potential of silver fir to thrive under warmer and drier climate?

Abstract

Foresters from many countries are seeking for tree species or provenances able to cope with expected climate change. While it becomes clear that some temperate tree species will increasingly suffer from climate warming, the fate of the ecologically and economically important silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) remains uncertain and debated because the ecological requirements of this species, as well as its resilience to drought are still unclear. On the one hand, paleoecological studies reveal that this species was widely distributed under much warmer climate, suggesting a high potential to cope with ongoing and future climate warming. On the other hand, species distribution models (SDMs) generally predict a strong decline of its climatic suitability in the future. This paper aims to clarify the potential of this species to thrive in central and western Europe under predicted climate warming by reviewing the knowledge gained from different fields. Based on insight from different fields, we argue that silver fir has a great potential to thrive under warmer conditions in western and central Europe provided sufficient rainfall, as forecasted by climate models for most regions by 2100. For instance, dendroecological studies demonstrate that silver fir is more resistant and resilient to drought compared to co-occurring species such as Norway spruce, European beech and larch. The most prominent obstacle for increasing the proportion of fir in mixed forests nowadays is ungulate browsing that often prevents its upgrowth.

Contrasting resistance and resilience to extreme drought and late spring frost in five major European tree species

“…In addition, fir is the only species for which the SPEI calculated over the summer months was on average across sites negatively correlated with tree‐ring width chronologies indicating increased growth under drier conditions (Figure S1). This surprising result may be related to its deep‐rooting system, which allows to profit from high temperatures often associated with drier conditions in summer without substantial water limitation, and to its early growth in spring (Vitasse et al, ). Our study area, however, is situated in the core of the species distribution and different results might be expected at warmer and drier sites.…”

Forecasting Forest Vulnerability to Drought in Pyrenean Silver Fir Forests Showing Dieback

“…The enhanced growth and high drought resistance of this species, compared to other coexisting conifers such as Norway spruce in central and eastern Europe (cf. Vitasse et al, 2019), contrasts with its reduced growth rates and widespread dieback in some sites, mainly concentrated in the south-western Spanish Pyrenees (Camarero et al, 2011;Büntgen et al, 2014;Gazol et al, 2015Gazol et al, , 2018. Thus, advancing the understanding of dieback patterns and processes of Silver fir near its rear edge is fundamental to understand how it will respond to further warming trends in other European regions.…”

Potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of key forest tree species in Italy under RCP4.5 for 2050s

“…A negative variation in habitat suitability for European larch is also con rmed by Dyderski et al (2018) and Mamet et al (2019). Also, silver r loss in habitat suitability values is in agreement with Vitasse et al (2019). Given the economic relevance of this group of species, SFM in Italy will should take particularly care on their management and supporting local enterprises and avoiding species substitution, maybe using different provenances and genotypes (Eilmann et al 2013;Gray et al 2016).…”