What Is the Best Discipline to Predict Overall Triathlon Performance? An Analysis of Sprint, Olympic, Ironman® 70.3, and Ironman® 140.6

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the proportion of dedication in each triathlon discipline (swimming, cycling, and running) and the importance of each separate discipline to predict overall performance of elite triathletes across different triathlon distances.Methods: Data from 2015 to 2020 (n = 16,667) from official races and athletes in Sprint, Olympic distance, IM 70.3 (Half-Ironman distance), and IM 140.6 (Full-Ironman distance) competitions were included. The proportion of each discipline was calculated individually and compared using general linear models by event distance, sex, and performance level. Automatic linear regression models were applied for each distance considering overall performance as the dependent variable.Results: A within-distance analysis showed that the best predictor for Sprint is cycling, for Olympic is swimming, for IM 70.3 is cycling, and for IM 140.6 is running. A between-distance analysis revealed that swimming is a better predictor in Olympic distance than in other triathlon distances. Cycling is a poor predictor for overall performance in IM 140.6, and the importance of running to predict overall performance is the highest in IM 140.6 and diminishes with decreasing race distance.Conclusion: Each discipline represents a different relative portion and importance to predict overall performance depending on the triathlon distance. Swimming is the most important predictor discipline in Sprint- and Olympic-distance triathlon, cycling in IM 70.3, and running in IM 140.6.

Contribution of Segments to Overall Result in Elite Triathletes: Sprint Distance

“…Specifically, very large and almost perfect agreements were found between CPI and OPI in elite men (ICC a = 0.871, IC95% = (0.711-0.927)) and elite women (ICC a = 0.907, IC95% = (0.875-0.929)), respectively. These results agree with those proposed by Horne [18], Cejuela et al [19] and Sousa et al [14], in which the cycling segment had the strongest relationship with overall finishing time, with no differences found between sexes. Therefore, the second Hypothesis (H2) was supported.…”

“…By contrast, it has also been concluded that the running segment should be the primary determinant of success in high-level short distance triathlon races; however, it should be noted that this investigation was carried out by physical education student volunteers instead of elite triathletes [3]. Nevertheless, similar results were observed in the Olympic distance [14]. Figueiredo et al [6] highlighted that strategies to improve in running segment should be the main focus in the preparation of the Olympic distance.…”

“…In sprint racing, Horne [18] points out that in the World Championship, with athletes divided according to age group, cycling had the strongest relationship with finishing time, while the lowest correlation with finishing time was found in the swimming section, although this study was carried out in draft-illegal races. Likewise, Sousa et al [14] claimed that the best predictor for Sprint distance is cycling. Regarding the running segment, these same authors concluded that the importance of running in the prediction of overall performance diminishes with decreasing race distance.…”

“…The study of the contribution of segments and transitions to the overall results of the competition has been widely focused on the Olympic distance [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. However, very little data are available on sprint distance triathlon performance, especially 2 of 11 for high-level international races [13], despite the fact that, depending on the distance of the triathlon, the discipline for predicting overall triathlon performance changes [14].…”

“…Figueiredo et al [6] highlighted that strategies to improve in running segment should be the main focus in the preparation of the Olympic distance. Because transitions can be important to overall performance, especially in shorter races, it is worth noting the lack of investigations on these segments for sprint distance [14] compared to Olympic distance events [9,16,19]. For Olympic distance events, Cejuela et al [19] found a low correlation between T1 and the overall result, although the lost time in this transition was different for each swimming pack.…”