What I Saw on the Road to Insurrection: Internal Political Efficacy, Conspiracy Beliefs and the Effect of Depression on Support for the January 6th Storming of the Capitol

Abstract

Depression can affect individuals’ attitudes by enhancing cognitive biases and altering perceptions of risk. Some evidence suggests an association between depression and endorsing mass violence. This linkage, however, is undertheorized by social science, tentatively empirically supported, with little attention to conditions impacting the relationship. We investigate whether and how mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic influenced Americans’ attitudes regarding domestic extremist violence surrounding the 2020 election and the January 6th US Capitol riot. We develop a theory regarding the circumstances under which depression will be positively associated with supporting extremist violence. We posit that it depends on internal political efficacy, conspiracy beliefs, and their combination. We test our theory using a two-wave national survey, from November 2020, and January 2021. We find that among efficacious individuals holding conspiracy beliefs, depression is positively associated with support for the Capitol stormers and for violence in response if the respondent believed the election was decided unfairly.

The psychological and political correlates of conspiracy theory beliefs

“…Despite the relatively large number of correlates we employ, many other correlates that have been identified by the rapidly growing literature (e.g., criminal activity, anomie, paranoid ideation, depression) are not included in this study due to the space limitations of our survey 3 , 4 , 77 . We encourage future studies to replicate and expand our analyses, using additional psychological and political traits across a broad range of specific conspiracy theory beliefs to understand the robustness of the relationships observed in past work.…”

Depressive symptoms and conspiracy beliefs

“…For this reason and for analytic clarity in looking for heterogeneous effects (as explained below), we follow prior work in defining distinct groups a priori: not depressed (PHQ‐9 ≤ 9), and at least moderate depressive symptoms (which henceforth we refer to as moderate depression) (PHQ‐9 ≥ 10). The 10 cut‐point is the common demarcation of having at least moderate depression (e.g., Baum et al, 2022; Ettman et al, 2022; Levis et al, 2019, 2020; Perlis et al, 2022). We find, in each respective wave, 27%, 26%, and 26% of the sample (unweighted) register as at least moderately depressed, which matches the figure from other sources during COVID‐19 (e.g., Ettman et al, 2022).…”

“…Conspiracy beliefs constitute a substantial political and public health threat. Such beliefs are associated with the endorsement of political violence (Baum et al, 2022; Jolley & Paterson, 2020), gun purchasing (Lacombe et al, 2022), the rejection of science (Goertzel, 2010), and the flouting of public health orders (Sternisko et al, 2021). This makes understanding the correlates of conspiracy thinking, to facilitate the development of interventions, vital.…”

Stopping the Steal and Selling the Big Lie: An Analysis of Tweets and Certification Votes Among House Republicans in the Wake of the 2020 Presidential Election

“…Recent scholarship has unpacked the relationship between conspiracy theories and the violence at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, among not only the rioters but also public support for such violence. These studies call attention to the role of presidential eschatology where presidents become a messiah figure (Bond and Neville-Shepard, 2023), misinformation on social media platforms (Boulianne and Lee, 2022), Christian nationalism (Armaly et al, 2022), and the intriguing combination of internal political efficacy and depression (Baum et al, 2021). While an analysis of the causes and consequences of the insurrection at the U.S capitol is beyond the scope of this paper, the tragedy and turmoil of that day serve as a powerful reminder of the democratic destabilization which can come from conspiracy theories.…”