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WO R K I N G PA P E R S E R I E S N O 1736 / S E P T E M B E R 2014
MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COST AND PRICE COMPETITIVENESS IN EXTERNAL REBALANCING OF EURO AREA COUNTRIES WHAT DO ALTERNATIVE HCIS TELL US?
Styliani Christodoulopoulou and Olegs TkačevsIn 2014 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote.NOTE: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect those of the ECB. The paper is released in order to make the research of CompNet generally available, in preliminary form, to encourage comments and suggestions prior to fi nal publication. The views expressed in the paper are the ones of the author(s) and do not necessarily refl ect those of the ECB, the ESCB, and of other organisations associated with the Network.
THE COMPETITIVENESS RESEARCH NETWORK
Styliani Christodoulopoulou
Non-technical SummaryThe ECB regularly publishes various indicators of cost and price competitiveness, called Harmonized Competitiveness Indicators (HCIs), of individual euro area member states. These capture both nominal exchange rate fluctuations and developments in various cost or price indices: consumer price index (CPI), domestic sales producer price index (PPI), gross domestic product deflator (GDP), unit labour costs in manufacturing (ULCM) and the total economy (ULCT). There is no agreement on which of these measures better reflects a country's external price competitiveness and is therefore a-priori more effective in driving trade developments. Since restoring price competitiveness is usually regarded as paramount to external rebalancing in the euro area, we conduct an empirical analysis of trade flows seeking to unveil the impact of alternative relative price measures on exports and imports of goods and services of individual euro area countries over the sample period 1995:Q1 -2013:Q1. More specifically we estimate standard exports and imports dynamic equations for goods and services, where each HCI is one of the determinants and compare exports and imports elasticities with respect to alternative HCIs.Estimation of exports equations illustrates that in most countries exports of goods and exports of services are sensitive to changes in at least one indicator of relative prices, and in most cases this sensitivity is relatively small. Estonia, Finland, Spain, ...