What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Erb, Karl‐Heinz; Formayer, Herbert; Leidinger, David; Leitinger, Georg; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich; Rammer, Werner

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.047

Cited by 86 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…However, our results suggest that forest management in torrential watersheds should aim for as little interventions as possible to keep the probability of torrential hazards low. This insight is in line with recent simulation-based studies across the Alps, finding that non-intervention management is best able to provide regulating ecosystem services and protect against natural hazards , Langner et al 2017, Mina et al 2017, Seidl et al 2019. A major concern of managers in this regard remains the thread of large-scale natural disturbances .…”

Section: Predictor Domainssupporting

confidence: 80%

“…However, as they are applied deliberately to regenerate forests, they are frequently seen as an important means to maintain the long-term protective function of forests against natural hazards (Brang et al 2006, Streit et al 2009. Recent quantitative studies indicated, however, that unmanaged forests provide a higher level of protection against natural hazards than managed forests (Irauschek et al 2017, Mina et al 2017, Seidl et al 2019. It thus remains unclear how forest disturbances-both natural and human-affect the occurrence probability and frequency of torrential hazards.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The effects of forest cover and disturbance on torrential hazards: large-scale evidence from the Eastern Alps

Sebald

Senf

Heiser

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Global human population growth, limited space for settlements and a booming tourism industry have led to a strong increase of human infrastructure in mountain regions. As this infrastructure is highly exposed to natural hazards, a main role of mountain forests is to regulate the environment and reduce hazard probability. However, canopy disturbances are increasing in many parts of the world, potentially threatening the protection function of forests. Yet, large-scale quantitative evidence on the influence of forest cover and disturbance on natural hazards remains scarce to date. Here we quantified the effects of forest cover and disturbance on the probability and frequency of torrential hazards for 10 885 watersheds in the Eastern Alps. Torrential hazard occurrences were derived from a comprehensive database documenting 3768 individual debris flow and flood events between 1986 and 2018. Forest disturbances were mapped from Landsat satellite time series analysis. We found evidence that forests reduce the probability of natural hazards, with a 25 percentage point increase in forest cover decreasing the probability of torrential hazards by 8.7%±1.2%. Canopy disturbances generally increased the probability of torrential hazard events, with the regular occurrence of large disturbance events being the most detrimental disturbance regime for natural hazards. Disturbances had a bigger effect on debris flows than on flood events, and press disturbances were more detrimental than pulse disturbances. We here present the first large scale quantification of forest cover and disturbance effects on torrential hazards. Our findings highlight that forests constitute important green infrastructure in mountain landscapes, efficiently reducing the probability of natural hazards, but that increasing forest disturbances can weaken the protective function of forests.

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Section: Predictor Domainssupporting

confidence: 80%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of forest cover and disturbance on torrential hazards: large-scale evidence from the Eastern Alps

Sebald

Senf

Heiser

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…This allowed us to identify under which combined climate forcing (if any) a critical transition occurs. To ensure realistic temporal variation and autocorrelation of climate variables, we used statistically downscaled future climate scenario data (i.e., from the GCM‐RCM combination of HadGEM2‐ES and CLMcom‐CCLM4‐8‐17 driven by RCP 8.5, see also Seidl et al., 2019 for details on how the climate scenario was derived) as basis for our climate scenarios. For each stepwise increase in temperature, we identified periods with a minimum length of 20 years in the downscaled climate scenarios where the simulated temperature change matched the respective target (i.e., +1°C: 2001–2022, +2°C: 2016–2046, +3°C: 2036–2067, +4°C: 2055–2075, +5°C: 2061–2091, +6°C: 2079–2099), while climate for the +0°C level was sampled from historical records (1961–2000).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To address our research question regarding the reversibility of climate impacts and test for possible hysteresis, we first simulated a stepwise increase in temperature up to +6°C (which is the expected temperature increase in our study landscape by the end of the 21st century under RCP 8.5, Seidl et al., 2019), followed by a symmetrical stepwise decrease in temperature. This sequence of temperature change was simulated for each of the above‐described precipitation change scenarios, with precipitation remaining at the same level throughout the respective simulations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Albrich

Rammer

Seidl

2020

Global Change Biology

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157

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Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual‐based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer‐dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.

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“…On the other hand, in mountainous terrain unmanaged forests show a higher capacity of climate and erosion self-regulation compared to managed forests. Therefore, natural forests are more resilient to altering environmental conditions and will provide valuable regulating ecosystem services in the future (Seidl et al 2019). The monitoring of such small-scale forest management practices will be crucial to guarantee a sustainable forestry, not only in Austria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenology Modelling and Forest Disturbance Mapping with Sentinel-2 time series in Austria

Löw

Tatjana

2020

Preprint

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Background Worldwide, forests provide natural resources and ecosystem services. However, forest ecosystems are threatened by increasing forest disturbance dynamics, caused by direct human activities or an altering natural environment. It is decisive to trace the intra- to trans-annual dynamics of these forest ecosystems. National to local forest communities request detailed area-wide maps that delineate forest disturbance dynamics at various spatial scales. Methods We developed a remote sensing based time series analysis (TSA) framework that comprises data access, data management, image pre-processing, and an advanced but flexible TSA. The data basis is a dense time series of multispectral Sentinel-2 images with a spatial resolution of 10 metres. We use a dynamic Savitzky-Golay-filtering approach to reconstruct robust but sensitive phenology courses. Deviations from the latter are further used to derive spatiotemporal information on forest disturbances. In a first case study, we apply the TSA to map forest disturbances directly or indirectly linked to recurring bark beetle infestation in Northern Austria. Finally, we use zonal statistics on different spatial scales to provide aggregated information on the extent of forest disturbances between 2018 and 2019.Results and Conclusion The outcomes are a) individual phenology models and deduced phenology metrics for each 10 metres by 10 metres forest pixel in Austria and b) forest disturbance maps useful to investigate the occurrence, development and extent of bark beetle infestation. The phenology modelling results provide area-wide consistent data, also useful for downstream analyses (e.g. forest type classification). Results of the forest disturbance detection demonstrate that the TSA is capable to systematically delineate disturbed forest areas. Information derived from such a forest monitoring tool is highly relevant for various stakeholders in the forestry sector, either for forest management purposes or for decision-making processes on different levels.

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What drives the future supply of regulating ecosystem services in a mountain forest landscape?

Cited by 86 publications

References 76 publications

The effects of forest cover and disturbance on torrential hazards: large-scale evidence from the Eastern Alps

The effects of forest cover and disturbance on torrential hazards: large-scale evidence from the Eastern Alps

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Phenology Modelling and Forest Disturbance Mapping with Sentinel-2 time series in Austria

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