What drives support for separatism? Exposure to conflict and relative ethnic size in Biafra, Nigeria

Abstract

What determines support for separatist movements in Africa? The past two decades have seen a rise in separatism across Africa, including renewed Nigeria's Igbo Biafran nationalism. While a large body of work has focused on the behaviour of African separatist movements themselves, less work has examined the correlates of popular support for their claims and goals. This study does so, focusing on two important factors. First, it examines whether exposure to conflict events involving neo‐Biafran movements increases or decreases support for the claims made by the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB). The study uses geo‐coded data from the Afrobarometer and ACLED datasets to measure proximate exposure and finds that more exposure correlates positively with support for secession. Second, it argues that the highest levels of support should be associated with members of ethnic groups that would dominate the proposed state. Drawing again from Afrobarometer, the study finds support for this.

Grand challenge of insecurity and Leadership: Humanizing Leadership to enhance security in divided Nigeria nation state.

“…Separatist movement have become omnipotent in the post-colonial African states from the division of Sudan, to the continued fragmentation of Somalia, and the protracted struggles of Caborda and Azuward, conflict over secession and separation continues to the present day (Charles, 2020). The rebirth of the agitation for self-determination struggle was reinforced by the longstanding collective memory of the Nigeria -Biafra Civil War in the late 1970s (Lewis, 2022), and economic and political marginalization experienced by the Igbo ethnic group. Such agelong grievances are central to the agitation of the Biafra separatist group championed by IPOB (International Crisis Group, 2015).…”

“…Nigerian state has undergone lot of challenges; starting from staggering political struggle for her independent under a leadership mistrust; the events that led to civil war in the late 1970s. Nigerian have witnessed numerous military coups as well as regional politics, ethnic conflicts and secessionist movements Lewis, 2022). While it seems that Nigeria has overcome its historical oil resource struggle; militancy and lots of economic sabotage from oil resource conflict in the Niger Delta region, suddenly emerged are the Boho Haran insurgent, farmers-herder conflicts, bandits attacks, kidnapping among other experiences that have caused much pains for Nigerians.…”

Undead Past: What Drives Support for the Secessionist Goal of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in Nigeria?

“…Although much research has been conducted on the demand for secession by neo-Biafra groups, most of them are qualitative. With the exception of the study by Lewis (2022), the few studies that use quantitative data often employ it descriptively and focus on the leadership of the movements and the response of the Nigerian government, while paying scant attention to the perceptions of the larger Nigerian population (e.g., Idachaba and Nneli 2018;Obi-Ani, Nzubechi, and Obi-Ani 2019;Chiluwa 2018). Relying on survey data, Lewis (2022) found that exposure to neo-Biafran conflicts positively correlated with support for secession among the subsample of respondents who belong to ethnic groups that are autochthonous to Biafran territory.…”

“…With the exception of the study by Lewis (2022), the few studies that use quantitative data often employ it descriptively and focus on the leadership of the movements and the response of the Nigerian government, while paying scant attention to the perceptions of the larger Nigerian population (e.g., Idachaba and Nneli 2018;Obi-Ani, Nzubechi, and Obi-Ani 2019;Chiluwa 2018). Relying on survey data, Lewis (2022) found that exposure to neo-Biafran conflicts positively correlated with support for secession among the subsample of respondents who belong to ethnic groups that are autochthonous to Biafran territory. Moreover, his regression results showed that support for secession was strongest among ethnic groups that would dominate the state of Biafra; the smaller ethnic groups that would be dominated were not supportive of secession.…”

“…This study differs from the one conducted by Lewis (2022) in the following ways: First, it relies upon the framework of the horizontal inequalities theory and pays particular attention to how political and socioeconomic horizontal inequalities influence support for secession. Second, recognizing the tripoidal nature of Nigeria's ethnic landscape, this study zooms in on Nigeria's three major ethnic groups-i.e., the Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo-and investigates how belonging to each of these groups influences support for secession.…”