What drives masting? The phenological synchrony hypothesis

Koenig, Walter D.; Knops, Johannes M. H.; Carmen, William J.; Pearse, Ian S.

doi:10.1890/14-0819.1

Cited by 133 publications

(204 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…Indirect coupling has been well studied in ecology and has been shown to affect plant populations in many ways. For example, pollen interactions with wind and insects enhance seed and/or fruit production in plants5671341424344.…”

Section: Indirect Interaction (Mean-filed Coupling): Pollinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Direct coupling: a possible strategy to control fruit production in alternate bearing

Prasad

Sakai

Hoshino

2017

Sci Rep

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We investigated the theoretical possibility of applying phenomenon of synchronization of coupled nonlinear oscillators to control alternate bearing in citrus. The alternate bearing of fruit crops is a phenomenon in which a year of heavy yield is followed by an extremely light one. This phenomenon has been modeled previously by the resource budget model, which describes a typical nonlinear oscillator of the tent map type. We have demonstrated how direct coupling, which could be practically realized through grafting, contributes to the nonlinear dynamics of alternate bearing, especially phase synchronization. Our results show enhancement of out-of-phase synchronization in production, which depends on initial conditions obtained under the given system parameters. Based on these numerical experiments, we propose a new method to control alternate bearing, say in citrus, thereby enabling stable fruit production. The feasibility of validating the current results through field experimentation is also discussed.

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Section: Indirect Interaction (Mean-filed Coupling): Pollinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar to alternate bearing, the phenomenon of acorn masting has been a common subject in studies of forest and ecological management56789. Isagi10 was the first to develop a simple nonlinear dynamics model to explain the annual oscillations of acorn production in an individual tree.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct coupling: a possible strategy to control fruit production in alternate bearing

Prasad

Sakai

Hoshino

2017

Sci Rep

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“…observ.). Like many oak species (Koenig and Knops, 2014;Koenig et al, 2015), Q. serrata shows considerable spatio-temporal variation (masting) in acorn production [from 2004 we observed regular mast events in 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2013 in a local population (Z. Xiao, unpubl.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 80%

Seed–predator satiation and Janzen–Connell effects vary with spatial scales for seed-feeding insects

Xiao

Holyoak³

et al. 2016

Ann Bot

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Background and AimsThe Janzen-Connell model predicts that common species suffer high seed predation from specialized natural enemies as a function of distance from parent trees, and consequently as a function of conspecific density, whereas the predator satiation hypothesis predicts that seed attack is reduced due to predator satiation at high seed densities. Pre-dispersal predation by insects was studied while seeds are still on parent trees, which represents a frequently overlooked stage in which seed predation occurs.Methods Reproductive tree density and seed production were investigated from ten Quercus serrata populations located in south-west China, quantifying density-dependent pre-dispersal seed predation over two years by three insect groups.Key Results Acorn infestation was nearly twice as high in the low-seed year as that in the high-seed year, with considerable spatio-temporal variation in the direction and magnitude of density-dependent pre-dispersal seed predation evident. Across whole populations of trees, a high density of reproductive trees caused predator satiation and reduced insect attack in the high-seed year. Within individual trees, and consistent with the Janzen-Connell model, overall insect seed predation was positively correlated with seed production in the low-seed year. In addition, there was variation among insect taxa, with positive density-dependent seed predation by Curculio weevils in the high-seed year and moths in the low-seed year, but apparent density independence by Cyllorhynchites weevils in both years.Conclusions The overall trend of negative density-dependent, pre-dispersal seed predation suggests that predator satiation limited the occurrence of Janzen-Connell effects across Q. serrata populations. Such effects may have large impacts on plant population dynamics and tree diversity, depending on the extent to which they are reduced by counteracting positive density-dependent predation for seeds on individual trees and other factors affecting successful recruitment.

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“…Comprehending the role of weather as a proximate cause for masting is especially important after the recent discoveries that resources invested in reproduction are acquired only during the several months prior to fruit maturation (Hoch et al, 2013;Ichie et al, 2013;Fernández-Martínez et al, 2015;Allen et al, 2017). Additionally, multiple meteorological variables can linearly or non-linearly interact to force trees to produce or not produce seeds in a given year, because weather affects both the acquisition of resources by plants, by conditioning their photosynthetic rates, and pollination efficiency (Fernández-Martínez et al, 2012;Koenig et al, 2015;Pesendorfer et al, 2016;Bogdziewicz et al, 2017a,b). We propose that rejecting weather as the most parsimonious driver of high interannual variability of seed production in masting plants was premature and should be revised.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nature beyond Linearity: Meteorological Variability and Jensen's Inequality Can Explain Mast Seeding Behavior

et al. 2017

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Mast seeding, the extremely variable and synchronized production of fruits, is a common reproductive behavior in plants. Weather is centrally involved in driving masting. Yet, it is often claimed that it cannot be the sole proximate cause of masting because weather is less variable than fruit production and because the shape of their distributions differ. We used computer simulations to demonstrate that the assumption that weather cannot be the main driver of masting was only valid for linear relationships between weather and fruit production. Non-linear relationships between interannual variability in weather and crop size, however, can account for the differences in their variability and the shape of their distributions because of Jensen's inequality. Exponential relationships with weather can increase the variability of fruit production, and sigmoidal relationships can produce bimodal distributions. These results challenge the idea that meteorological variability cannot be the main proximate driver of mast seeding, returning meteorological variability to the forefront of masting research.

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What drives masting? The phenological synchrony hypothesis

Cited by 133 publications

References 66 publications

Direct coupling: a possible strategy to control fruit production in alternate bearing

Direct coupling: a possible strategy to control fruit production in alternate bearing

Seed–predator satiation and Janzen–Connell effects vary with spatial scales for seed-feeding insects

Nature beyond Linearity: Meteorological Variability and Jensen's Inequality Can Explain Mast Seeding Behavior

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