What do we know about the employment impacts of climate policies? A review of the ex post literature

Abstract

Concern around the employment impacts of climate mitigation policies can be a contentious and politized issue, with potentially limiting implications for climate action. It persists despite a significant ex ante literature that suggests that aggregate effects will most likely be limited and net positive. This review analyses 60 papers assessing the employment impacts of climate policies ex post, in 20 countries and 2 country groups. Eight broad mitigation policies are covered: (1) emissions trading, (2) carbon taxes, (3) feed-in tariffs, renewable energy (4) procurement and ( 5) deployment, (6) green economy/jobs, (7) environmental regulation, and (8) other policies and regulations. The analysis confirms that employment impacts tend to be modest and net positive or neutral, but reveals that distributional outcomes can be uneven, disadvantaging certain groups and at times reinforcing existing inequalities. Additionally, lower quality jobs or weak labor market regulations may decrease the attractiveness of jobs created or increase job transition costs. These findings provide some justification for increased focus on how climate policies can ensure a "just transition of the workforce and the creation of decent work and quality jobs" stipulated in the Paris Agreement, but also suggest that climate action should not be delayed for fear of widespread negative employment impacts. Ex post assessments offer an important lens into the determinants of climate policy employment outcomes and should be advanced and harnessed in support of accelerated and just action. This article is categorized under: Economics of Mitigation > Climate Economics Social Justice and the Politics of Development > Climate and Development K E Y W O R D S climate mitigation, employment impacts, ex-post review 1 | INTRODUCTION Unmitigated climate change will have severe, negative impacts across all spheres of human existence, including employment and livelihoods (IPCC, 2022). In a best-case scenario where mitigation efforts are accelerated in pursuit of

Factors Influencing the Employment Transition of Rural Employees in Nghi Son Economic Zone, Thanh Hoa Province, Vietnam, After Relocation Caused by Land Acquisition

“…This may limit their ability to effectively transition to new employment opportunities or acquire the necessary skills for non-agricultural occupations. Furthermore, the lack of access to education and training opportunities can perpetuate poverty and inequality in rural While the guidelines, policies, and programs implemented by the state and local authorities have some influence on the job transition of rural workers after land acquisition, personal factors such as education and age have been found to be more influential (Godinho, 2022;Hanson, 2023). It is essential to recognize that while supportive policies and programs can create an enabling environment for job transitions, individual characteristics and circumstances play a vital role in determining outcomes (Ozili, 2020;Tuan & Hegedűs, 2018).…”

Quantity and quality of job creation in renewable energy and energy efficiency: A review of international evidence

“…Nevertheless, it is likely that achieving national net zero or decarbonisation targets will require a prolonged period of construction and installation of new renewables capacity over the next several decades. Godinho (2022) point to OECD research which indicates that in general, lower skilled employees in the energy supply sector are more likely to be affected by job displacement as a result of low carbon energy transitions, and this may be compounded by workers losing bene ts from previous work in carbon-intensive sectors (Chateau, Bibas and Lanzi, 2018;Botta, 2019). In general, stronger national and international labour market standards and regulations are needed to support unemployed workers in decommissioned industries, provide skills training and increase the availability of alternative, decent work in affected regions (IRENA and ILO, 2021; Godinho, 2022).…”

“…A US-focused study suggests that green stimulus programmes supporting wind power and solar PV helped to boost job creation, expand manufacturing capacity and supply chains, and increase revenue from sales of renewable energy technology (Mundaca and Luth Richter, 2015). A review of the impact of various climate change mitigation policies across 20 countries nds that they tend to lead to an overall but modest increase (or otherwise no change) in employment net of jobs displaced (Godinho, 2022). Pre-existing reviews of the literature also suggest that substituting fossil fuels with renewables and energy e ciency is most likely to result in small net employment gains (Blyth et al, 2014;Stavropoulos and Burger, 2020).…”

“…Pre-existing reviews of the literature also suggest that substituting fossil fuels with renewables and energy e ciency is most likely to result in small net employment gains (Blyth et al, 2014;Stavropoulos and Burger, 2020). There is a risk however that some of the newly created jobs may be of poor quality and this may be compounded by insu cient labour market policies or regulations (Godinho, 2022).…”

Unveiling the Spatial Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: International Evidence

“…A second important strand of the literature has concentrated on the repercussions of climate change. For instance, an increasing number of studies have examined the effects of climate change on agricultural production [9][10][11], employment [12][13][14], energy demand [15][16][17], financial stability [18][19][20], and economic activity [21][22][23]. The impact of climate change on economic growth has particularly attracted the attention of scholars for at least two reasons.…”