What do adoption patterns of solar panels observed so far tell about governments’ incentive? Insights from diffusion models

Bunea, Anita M.; Posta, Pompeo Della; Guidolin, Mariangela; Manfredi, Piero

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120240

Cited by 20 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The only coefficient always resulting non-significant was p 2 , the external coefficient for renewables, and therefore not displayed within results. This fact is consistent with the flat behavior of data observed before and with previous findings on the weak role played by the external component in the adoption of RETs, which justified the need of ad-hoc incentive measures to stimulate market growth (Guidolin and Mortarino (2010), Bunea et al (2020)). Parameters p 1c and (q 1c + δ), referred to the trajectory of gas, are significant and positive, confirming an essentially growing trend, although the magnitude of parameter q 2 in all the countries, calls the attention on the more intense growth of RETs.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In Dalla Valle and Furlan (2011) a similar analysis was conducted on the diffusion of wind power, also performing an out-of-sample forecasting evaluation with a comparison among concurrent models. Bunea et al (2020) upgraded and extended previous contributions on PV diffusion, by considering the 26 countries that contributed to 99% of cumulative PV adoptions during 1992-2016. They confirmed the lack of support by the media system and showed that public incentives were often not efficiently designed in a long term perspective, with a kind of 'addiction to incentive' phenomenon.…”

Section: Background Literaturementioning

confidence: 96%

“…As a general pattern, characterizing all countries, RETs present a strongly growing trend, after an initial phase where the data show a flat behavior, due to the difficulties connected with the adoption of renewables, then overcome with suitable incentive measures. This exponential growth has undergone a slowdown in most recent years in just two cases, Italy and Spain, where the 'addiction to incentive' phenomenon suggested by Bunea et al (2020) may have been especially strong. Concerning natural gas data, a stronger variability appears among countries, although a substantially positive trend may be observed, with the remarkable exceptions of China on the one hand, with a strongly exponential growth, and Denmark on the other, where the trajectory is clearly in its declining phase.…”

Section: Dataset Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are renewable energies on a sustained path? Analysis of selected case-studies from the pre-pandemic-era

Bessi,

Guidolin,

Manfredi

2021

Preprint

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Provided widespread vaccination will bring the COVID-19 pandemic under full control worldwide, the contrast to climate change and the energy transition as one of its main actions will return at the top of national and international policy agendas. This paper employs multivariate diffusion models to investigate and quantitatively assess the competitive power of renewable energy technologies and their perspectives along the invoked energy transition. The study was conducted for the period 1965-2019 on a number of selected case studies, that were considered critically representative of the current transition process in view of their energy and political context. The dynamic relationship between renewable technologies and natural gas has been at the core of the analysis, trying to establish whether gas could be considered as a bridging technology or a lock-in. The main findings show that in all the analyzed countries RETs have exerted a strongly competitive effect towards gas. In most cases, gas is found to have a bridging role, aiding the uptake of renewables.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Background Literaturementioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Dataset Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are renewable energies on a sustained path? Analysis of selected case-studies from the pre-pandemic-era

Bessi,

Guidolin,

Manfredi

2021

Preprint

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“…In this sense, policy measures and incentive mechanisms, such as feed-in tariffs, have been used to stimulate the market. In order to capture the real effect of these measures, the Generalised Bass model (GMB) by Bass et al (1994) has proven to be an essential modelling tool, allowing to explain a substantial lack of pioneering consumers in RETs adoption and the positive effect exerted by incentives in driving the market (see, in particular, Bunea et al, 2020). The use of the GBM also allows a more accurate forecasting procedure through an efficient description of the nonlinear trajectory, which, in the case of renewables is often far from being smooth.…”

Section: Forecasting Renewable Energy Technologies 121mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos,

Apiletti,

Assimakopoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice.

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“…Given this critical role played by public incentives in the take-off of the Italian PV market, we will specifically use the Generalized Bass Model (GBM), [24], which is especially suited to describing innovation diffusions that are perturbed by structured shocks. In addition, this model has also already been applied to the PV market [25]. Structured shocks are perturbations of a diffusion phenomenon that show an identifiable pattern, as is often the case for external policy interventions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in Italy: Can Large-Scale PV Installations Trigger the Next Growth Phase?

Bessi,

Guidolin,

Manfredi

2024

Energies

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The National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the EU Member States have established comprehensive goals for 2030 to speed up the process of energy transition. Though Italy was an innovator in the area of photovoltaics (PV) up until 2014, the subsequent collapse and stagnation of its PV market have revealed an intrinsic fragility, which makes reaching international targets in the future unclear. This study used the Generalized Bass Model in a multi-phase extension to offer insights into and perspectives on the Italian PV market with the use of new data at finer temporal and market-size scales. Our model-based evidence suggests the possibility of a remarkable structural change corresponding to the “reboot” period after the pandemic crisis. In this period, small- and large-scale PV adoption, after years of parallel pathways, have taken largely different routes. On the one hand, small-scale adoption exhibited a fast decline with the end of the post-COVID-19 incentive programs, thus confirming the traditional “addiction to incentive” issue. On the other hand, during the “reboot” period, large-scale installations showed, for the first time, symptoms of exponential growth. This is consistent with the possibility that, finally, this sector is on an autonomous growth path. The latter evidence might represent a critically important novelty in the Italian PV landscape, where firms—rather than households—take the lead in the process. Nonetheless, future public monitoring and guidance are both urgent requirements to avoid a further catastrophic fall in the residential PV market and to make the sustained growth of the large-scale PV industry a robust phenomenon.

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What do adoption patterns of solar panels observed so far tell about governments’ incentive? Insights from diffusion models

Cited by 20 publications

References 38 publications

Are renewable energies on a sustained path? Analysis of selected case-studies from the pre-pandemic-era

Are renewable energies on a sustained path? Analysis of selected case-studies from the pre-pandemic-era

Forecasting: theory and practice

Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in Italy: Can Large-Scale PV Installations Trigger the Next Growth Phase?

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