What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

Mazarr, Michael J.; Chan, Arthur; Demus, Alyssa; Frederick, Bryan; Nader, Alireza; Pézard, Stéphanie; Thompson, J.; Treyger, Elina

doi:10.7249/rr2451

Cited by 22 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…21 Although previous academic analyses found support for these relationships, we employed statistical techniques-specifically for our analysis of U.S. overseas troop presence-that we believe represent an important step forward in our understanding of these patterns. For reviews of the literature on deterrence, see, for instance, Mazarr et al, 2018;Art and Greenhill, 2018; and Paul K. Huth, "Deterrence and International Conflict: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates," American Review of Political Science, Vol. 2, 1999.…”

Section: Overview Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Value of Overseas Military Campaigning in Strategic Competition

2023

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This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Evaluating the Return on Army Activities in Competition, sponsored by Futures and Concepts Center, Army Futures Command. The purpose of the project was to develop a framework for assessing the cost-benefit trade-offs of different types of competitive activities and apply the framework to select activities to help the U.S. Army better calibrate and prioritize its responses to Chinese and Russian hostile measures.This research was conducted within RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) sponsored by the United States Army.RAND operates under a "Federal-Wide Assurance" (FWA00003425) and complies with the Code of Federal Regulations for the Protection of Human Subjects Under United States Law (45 CFR 46), also known as "the Common Rule," as well as with the implementation guidance set forth in DoD Instruction 3216.02. As applicable, this compliance includes reviews and approvals by RAND's Institutional Review Board (the Human Subjects Protection Committee) and by the U.S. Army. The views of sources utilized in this study are solely their own and do not represent the official policy or position of DoD or the U.S. Government.

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Section: Overview Of Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Value of Overseas Military Campaigning in Strategic Competition

2023

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“…Deterrence by punishment measures, for instance, are contingent on the receptiveness of the adversary, these counter-hybrid strategies only work well when the adversary is responsive to such measures. [47]. The modelling exercise indicates that even a small enhancement in understanding the aggressor's plausible receptiveness to counterhybrid measures could lead to a significant enhancement in the assessment of the effectiveness of measures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling

Vonk,

Sweijs,

Minicozzi

2024

Preprint

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Western governments have adopted an assortment of counter-hybrid threat measures to defend against hostile actions below the conventional military threshold. The impact of these measures is unclear because of the ambiguity of hybrid threats, their cross-domain nature, and uncertainty about how countermeasures shape adversarial behaviour. This paper presents a model to simulate the impact of countermeasures on hybrid threat behaviour through a Bayesian Network approach - a probabilistic modelling technique. The model balances the costs of countermeasures, their ability to dissuade the adversary from executing hybrid threats, and their potential to mitigate the impact of hybrid threats. We run 1000 variants of a semi-synthetic scenario simulating the strategic interaction between attacking agent A and defending agent B over a cyber attack on critical infrastructure to explore the effectiveness of a set of five different counter-hybrid threat measures. Counter-hybrid measures range from strengthening resilience and denial of the adversary's ability to execute a hybrid threat to dissuasion through the threat of punishment. Our analysis primarily evaluates the overarching characteristics of counter-hybrid threat measures This approach allows us to generalize the effectiveness of these measures, rather than attributing results to measures individually. In addition, we discuss policy relevance and outline future research avenues.

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“…Scholars in political science, psychology, economics, and decision analysis have studied deterrence and the related subject of coercive diplomacy for decades. The topic is well understood and articulated, including the circumstances in which deterrence fails, as discussed in a recent review (Mazarr, 2018;Mazarr, Chan, Demus, Frederick, Nader, Pezard, Thompson, and Treyger, 2018). Drawing on this recent review and our own past research, 2 the following points loom large.…”

Section: Deterrencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…We are less sanguine thanMazarr, Chan, Demus, Frederick, Nader, Pezard, Thompson, and Treyger, 2018, about the feasibility of the United States making its determination clear and compelling. A nation's values and intentions can vary by its leader and its emerging realities.…”

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confidence: 99%

Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms

Davis¹,

O’Mahony²,

Curriden³

et al. 2021

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What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

Cited by 22 publications

References 31 publications

Assessing the Value of Overseas Military Campaigning in Strategic Competition

Assessing the Value of Overseas Military Campaigning in Strategic Competition

A Bayesian Network Approach to Hybrid Threat Modelling

Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms

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