What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?

Tinker, Jonathan; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Barciela, Rosa; Dye, Stephen

doi:10.5194/os-14-887-2018

Cited by 12 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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Section: System Platform Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of NWS reanalyses, with global seasonal forecasting systems (such as the Met Office GloSea5 system), may extend NWS (temperature and salinity) predictability into the monthlyto-seasonal timescale, which would be of great benefit to European environmental and fisheries management (Tinker et al, 2018). Tinker et al (2018) identified (and assessed) a number of pathways toward developing such a forecast, however, many challenges remain, and much research is required. Seasonal forecasts for the NWS would assist future operational management the NE Atlantic shelf seas and also has the potential to support marine operations sensitive to wind/wave conditions and currents such as the oil and gas industry, shipping, commercial and recreational fisheries.…”

Section: System Platform Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Successful Blue Economy Examples With an Emphasis on International Perspectives

et al. 2019

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Careful definition and illustrative case studies are fundamental work in developing a Blue Economy. As blue research expands with the world increasingly understanding its importance, policy makers and research institutions worldwide concerned with ocean and coastal regions are demanding further and improved analysis of the Blue Economy. Particularly, in terms of the management connotation, data access, monitoring, and product development, countries are making decisions according to their own needs. As a consequence of this lack of consensus, further dialogue including this cases analysis of the blue economy is even more necessary. This paper consists of four chapters: (I) Understanding the concept of Blue Economy, (II) Defining Blue economy theoretical cases, (III) Introducing Blue economy application cases and (IV) Providing an outlook for the future. Chapters (II) and (III) summarizes all the case studies into nine aspects, each aiming to represent different aspects of the blue economy. This paper is a result of knowledge and experience collected from across the global ocean observing community, and is only made possible with encouragement, support and help of all members. Despite the blue economy being a relatively new concept, we have demonstrated our promising exploration in a number of areas. We put forward proposals for the development of the blue economy, including shouldering global responsibilities to protect marine ecological environment, strengthening international communication and sharing development achievements, and promoting the establishment of global blue partnerships. However, there is clearly much room for further development in terms of the scope and depth of our collective understanding and analysis.

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Section: System Platform Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: System Platform Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Successful Blue Economy Examples With an Emphasis on International Perspectives

et al. 2019

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“…Most recently of all, there has been an increasing focus on sustained monitoring and forecasting of the lower trophic ecosystem and marine biogeochemistry (She et al, 2016). The Met Office, with the support of collaborators from around the NWS region, has been producing freely available marine predictions and forecasts for this region for a number of years as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS;Le Traon et al, 2017;Tonani et al, 2017) and precursor projects (e.g. Siddorn et al, 2007;O'Dea et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The operational ocean forecasting systems developed with the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Models (FOAM) are based on a seamless prediction philosophy whereby the global and regional systems rely on similar ocean modelling and assimilation tools, and are co-developed for short-range forecasting, seasonal forecasting (e.g. MacLachlan et al, 2015;Tinker et al, 2018), and climate predictions (Williams et al, 2018). The operational forecasting configuration for the NWS is a FOAM system designed to deal with the specific constraints of operational oceanography on a shallow continental shelf sea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of a new high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf forecasting system

et al. 2019

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Abstract. The North-West European Shelf ocean forecasting system has been providing oceanographic products for the European continental shelf seas for more than 15 years. In that time, several different configurations have been implemented, updating the model and the data assimilation components. The latest configuration to be put in operation, an eddy-resolving model at 1.5 km (AMM15), replaces the 7 km model (AMM7) that has been used for 8 years to deliver forecast products to the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service and its precursor projects. This has improved the ability to resolve the mesoscale variability in this area. An overview of this new system and its initial validation is provided in this paper, highlighting the differences with the previous version. Validation of the model with data assimilation is based on the results of 2 years (2016–2017) of trial experiments run with the low- and high-resolution systems in their operational configuration. The 1.5 km system has been validated against observations and the low-resolution system, trying to understand the impact of the high resolution on the quality of the products delivered to the users. Although the number of observations is a limiting factor, especially for the assessment of model variables like currents and salinity, the new system has been proven to be an improvement in resolving fine-scale structures and variability and provides more accurate information on the major physical variables, like temperature, salinity, and horizontal currents. AMM15 improvements are evident from the validation against high-resolution observations, available in some selected areas of the model domain. However, validation at the basin scale and using daily means penalized the high-resolution system and does not reflect its superior performance. This increment in resolution also improves the capabilities to provide marine information closer to the coast even if the coastal processes are not fully resolved by the model.

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“…The operational ocean forecasting systems developed with the Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Models (FOAM) are based on a seamless prediction philosophy whereby the global and regional systems rely on similar ocean modelling and assimilation tools, and are co-developed for short-range forecasting, seasonal forecasting (e.g. MacLachlan et al, 2015, Tinker et al 2018 and climate predictions (Williams et al, 2018). The operational forecasting configuration for the North-West European Shelf (NWS) is a FOAM system designed to deal with the specific constraints of operational oceanography on a shallow continental shelf sea.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of a new high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf forecasting system

Tonani¹,

Sykes²,

King³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. The North-West European shelf ocean forecasting system has been providing oceanographic products for the European continental shelf seas for more than fifteen years. In that time several different configurations have been implemented, updating the model and the data assimilation components. The latest configuration to be put in operations, an eddy resolving model at 1.5 km (AMM15), replaces the 7 km model (AMM7) that has been used for a number of years. This has improved the ability to resolve the mesoscale variability in this area. An overview of this new system and its initial validation is provided in this paper, highlighting the differences with the previous version. Validation of the model is based on the results of two years (2016–2017) trial experiments run with the low and high resolution systems in their operational configuration. The 1.5 km system has been validated against observations and the low resolution system, trying to understand the impact of the high resolution on the quality of the products delivered to the users. Although the number of observations is a limiting factor, especially for the assessment of model variables like currents and salinity, the new system has been proven to be an improvement in resolving fine scale structures and variability and provides more accurate information on the major physical variables, like temperature, salinity and horizontal currents. AMM15 improvements are evident from the validation against high-resolution observations, available in some selected areas of the model domain. However, validation at the basin scale and using daily means penalised the high-resolution system and does not reflect its superior performance. This increment in resolution also improves the capabilities to provide marine information closer to the coast even if the coastal processes are not fully resolved by the model.

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What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?

Cited by 12 publications

References 61 publications

Successful Blue Economy Examples With an Emphasis on International Perspectives

Successful Blue Economy Examples With an Emphasis on International Perspectives

The impact of a new high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf forecasting system

The impact of a new high-resolution ocean model on the Met Office North-West European Shelf forecasting system

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