Wet and dry patterns associated with ENSO events in the Sonoran Desert from, 2000–2015

Золотокрылин, А. Н.; Титкова, Т. Б.; Brito‐Castillo, Luis

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2016.06.014

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…As in CAs, winter rainfall (Figure 4) contributes more to the AnPr (acum_cont from 50 to 90% and R95p_cont from 10 to 40%) than the summer. Similar wintertime systems influence DES and the Mediterranean CAs, but DES also receives scarce monsoon rains and the tails of a few TCs during summer (Cavazos et al ., 2008; Zolotokrylin et al ., 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of daily extreme and non‐extreme rainfall indices and intercomparison with different gridded data sets over Mexico and the southern United States

Colorado-Ruiz

Cavazos

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Trends of 15 extreme and non‐extreme daily rainfall indices for Mexico and the southern United States are analyzed for the extended boreal winter (November–March) and summer (June–October) during 1981–2010. The analysis includes gridded observations (CHIRPS and Livneh), reanalyses (ERA5, ERA‐Interim, MERRA2, and CFSR), the regional climate model RegCM4.7 (forced by ERA‐Interim), and four general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 (HadGEM2‐ES, CNRM‐CM5, MPI‐ESM‐MR, and GFDL‐ESM2M). The domain is divided into 13 regions with similar seasonal rainfall patterns according to the k‐means algorithm applied to CHIRPS monthly precipitation, as a reference. Gridded observations and reanalyses (O&R) show similar regional annual cycles and metrics of precipitation. The two observational data sets show the largest differences in the magnitude of some indices in the wettest region (southeastern Mexico) and in the monsoon. During summer, O&R show positive significant trends in extreme rainfall indices in regions commonly affected by tropical cyclones (southern Baja California Peninsula, northeastern Mexico, and the southeastern United States), while negative significant trends of seasonal accumulation of rainfall are seen in the Mediterranean Californias and the Sonoran Desert region. There is an agreement among most data sets that the frequency and intensity of extreme winter precipitation indices have declined in northwest Mexico and the southwestern United States, but trends are not statistically significant, while southeastern Mexico shows significant increases in 5‐days accumulation (rx5d). ERA5 followed by MERRA2 show the best performance. RegCM4.7 reproduces the annual cycle of precipitation in most of the regions and captures the main trend signals especially in winter, but it has difficulties in reproducing the summer interannual variability of few indices. The GCMs tend to overestimate (underestimate) the annual cycle of precipitation and the median values of extreme indices in the driest (wettest) regions. They are not able to capture the regional trends of the indices.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of daily extreme and non‐extreme rainfall indices and intercomparison with different gridded data sets over Mexico and the southern United States

Colorado-Ruiz

Cavazos

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Because of the above, the productive response of vegetation can be susceptible to changes in precipitation and temperature patterns (Crimmins, Crimmins, & Bertelsen, 2010;Hinojo-Hinojo et al, 2016). Thus, climate changes associated with the ENSO phenomenon can have significant impacts on arid zones (Holmgren et al, 2006;Zolotokrilyn, Titkova, & Brito-Castillo, 2016). The climate pattern is very complex and causes variations in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, changes normal surface temperatures, and can have large-scale impacts on both ocean processes and global climate conditions (NOAA, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Por lo anterior, la respuesta productiva de la vegetación puede ser susceptible a los cambios de la precipitación y los patrones de temperatura (Crimmins, Crimmins, & Bertelsen, 2010;Hinojo-Hinojo et al, 2016). Así, los cambios climáticos asociados al fenómeno ENSO pueden tener impactos significativos en las zonas áridas (Holmgren et al, 2006;Zolotokrilyn, Titkova, & Brito-Castillo, 2016). El patrón climático es muy complejo y ocasiona variaciones en las temperaturas oceánicas South America.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Análisis de la respuesta productiva ante la variabilidad climática en tipos de vegetación exótica y nativa del Desierto Sonorense

2021

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La introducción de zacate buffel (Cenchrus ciliaris) para incrementar la producción de forraje ha provocado modificaciones en grandes extensiones de terreno del Desierto Sonorense. Aunado a lo anterior, nuestro conocimiento acerca de la influencia de fenómenos climáticos, como El Niño, sobre la dinámica de productividad en la vegetación, es limitado. El presente trabajo pretende analizar la actividad fotosintética/productiva de la vegetación del Desierto Sonorense en sitios con matorral subtropical y praderas de buffel para determinar diferencias entre fases del fenómeno El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO acrónimo en inglés). Se establecieron sitios de estudio en comunidades vegetales con y sin buffel. Se adquirieron imágenes satelitales del “Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)” para derivar el Índice de Vegetación de Diferencia Normalizada (NDVI, acrónimo en inglés) en compuestos de 16 días. Se obtuvo información acerca de las diferentes fases de El Niño desde 2001 hasta 2017. Los resultados sugieren actividad productiva mayor durante la fase Neutra que durante las fases El Niño o La Niña. También, el matorral subtropical presenta mayor actividad productiva que las praderas de buffel en cualquiera de las combinaciones estación-fase analizadas, excepto en La Niña durante el verano

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“…Several studies have been carried out to find the relationship between ENSO events and droughts, for example, (Wang and Kumar, 2015) found a strong relationship between the southwestern US drought and La Niña during the period , and between southwestern precipitations and El Niño during the period 1978-1999, reaching the conclusion that ENSO can alter precipitation patterns, and therefore, affect southwestern droughts in terms of frequency and intensity. A study carried out in the Sonoran desert, from May to September 2000-2015 (Zolotokrylin et al, 2016), indicates that the probability of wet conditions between May-September was incremented following El Niño and La Niña or the setting of La Niña conditions. Likewise (Verbist et al, 2010) concluded that the Coquimbo region, located to the North of Chile, is under a strong influence of El Niño, with a reported precipitation increase during hot weather episodes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking El Niño Southern Oscillation for early drought detection in tropical climates: The Ecuadorian coast

Mera

Vera

Pérez-Martín

2018

Science of The Total Environment

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El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most determining climate pattern in the tropics of the Pacific coast of America that regulate flood and drought periods. Over the last decades, Ecuador has incurred in significant economic losses due to drought events, around 4% of the GDP, mainly in the agricultural and livestock sectors and the hydropower generation. The use of Drought Indicators and the Early Drought Detection can contribute to reduce the impacts of these events. A drought forecasting system, based on ENSO and Drought Indicators, is presented to determine the possibility of appearance of drought events in Manabí River Basin District (MRBD). This system can help to the decision makers, in December (short-term drought, seasonal) and in May (long-term drought, annual), to activate the drought measures in the following months. Six climate indices are used for ENSO: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for Niño regions: 4, 3.4, 3 and 1 + 2. On the other hand, two drought indices are used: spatially distributed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6 and 12 months-, and a modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), derived from a calibrated water balance model. This system allows early drought detection, assessing SST 1 + 2 (lag -7), 3 (lag -9) and 3.4 (lag -9) anomalies and drought indices, in December for a season drought and May for an annual drought. These analyses demonstrates that, drought may forecasting up to 7-9 months before their occurrence, through SST regions observations, based on strong relationship between ENSO and droughts occurrence.

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Wet and dry patterns associated with ENSO events in the Sonoran Desert from, 2000–2015

Cited by 15 publications

References 26 publications

Trends of daily extreme and non‐extreme rainfall indices and intercomparison with different gridded data sets over Mexico and the southern United States

Trends of daily extreme and non‐extreme rainfall indices and intercomparison with different gridded data sets over Mexico and the southern United States

Análisis de la respuesta productiva ante la variabilidad climática en tipos de vegetación exótica y nativa del Desierto Sonorense

Linking El Niño Southern Oscillation for early drought detection in tropical climates: The Ecuadorian coast

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