Western Indian Ocean marine and terrestrial records of climate variability: a review and new concepts on land–ocean interactions since AD 1660

Zinke, Jens; Pfeiffer, Miriam; Timm, O. Elison; Dullo, Wolf-Christian; Brummer, Geert-Jan A

doi:10.1007/s00531-008-0365-5

Cited by 37 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…Possibly the early pre-peak temperature rise in 2016 were driven by ENSO forces, while the later and prolonged warm temperatures in 1998 were influenced by a strong and persistent IOD. Moreover, the complex interactions between these and other oceanographic oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are likely to result in complex East African temperature anomalies (Cole et al 2000, Zinke et al 2009). Despite the strong similarity in gross thermal exposures between 1998 and 2016, differences in prebleaching temperature fluctuations probably influenced bleaching responses.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in coral sensitivity to thermal anomalies

McClanahan¹

2017

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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The 1998 and 2016 thermal anomalies were among the 2 most severe global-scale anomalies in recent history, with broad-scale impacts on reef condition. In 2 Kenyan fully protected national park reef lagoons, the water flow, light, and temperature exposure severity of these 2 events was grossly similar at 7.3 cm s -1 , ~50 Einsteins m −2 d −1 and ~85 degree-days above summer baseline. Yet, despite similarities in the coral communities' metrics over this time, the bleaching responses were diminished considerably across this 17 yr period. For example, the numbers of pale and bleached colonies declined from 73 to 27% and from 96 to 60% in the low and high thermal exposure reefs, respectively. A metric that weights bleaching by the intensity of the response and the number of individuals of each taxon also found a decline from 35 to 10% and from 65 to 33%. Of the 21 most common coral taxa, 11, including major contributors to coral cover such as Porites and Acropora, showed declines in their sensitivity. Ten taxa, including Montipora and Pocillopora, showed either little or weak evidence for change in sensitivity, and 1 taxon, Acanthastrea, was more sensitive to the exposure in 2016 than in 1998. Sampling limitations and qualitative differences in the pre-peak temperature conditions did not allow separating the influences of genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and community change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in coral sensitivity to thermal anomalies

McClanahan¹

2017

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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“…The reconstruction incorporated all published annually-resolved climate records from southern Africa and surrounding oceans that spanned all or part of the 19th and 20th centuries. These included four documentary series (from Vogel, 1989;Endfield, 2002, 2008; and this study), three coral δ 18 O and/or Sr/Ca series (Zinke et al, 2004;Zinke et al, 2009), one treering width series (Therrell et al, 2006), a baobab tree-ring isotope series (Woodborne et al, 2015) and two rainfall series derived from ships' logs .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the SRZ, these included three documentary-derived series (from Vogel, 1989;, three coral δ18O and/or Sr/Ca series (Zinke et al, 2004;Zinke et al, 2009), and a single tree-ring width series (Therrell et al, 2006). The results of the current study, two rainfall series for Mthatha (Eastern Cape) and Royal National Park (KZN) derived from ships' logs , and a baobab tree-ring isotope series from north-eastern South Africa (Woodborne et al, 2015) were added as part of the current reconstruction.…”

Section: S3 Multi-proxy Rainfall Reconstruction For the Summer Rainfmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources

Nash

Pribyl

Klein³

et al. 2015

Climatic Change

119

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Analyses of historical patterns of rainfall variability are essential for understanding long-term changes in precipitation timing and distribution. Focussing on former Natal and Zululand (now KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa), this study presents the first combined annual and seasonal reconstruction of rainfall variability over southeast Africa for the 19th century. Analyses of documentary sources, including newspapers and colonial and missionary materials, indicate that the region was affected by severe or multi-year drought on eight occasions between 1836 and 1900 (the rainy seasons of 1836-38, 1861-63, 1865-66, 1868-70, 1876-79, 1883-85, 1886-90 and 1895-1900). Six severe or multi-year wet periods are also identified (1847-49, 1854-57, 1863-65, 1879-81, 1890-91 and 1892-94). The timing of these events agrees well with independent reconstructions of 19th century rainfall for other parts of the southern African summer rainfall zone (SRZ), suggesting subcontinental scale variability. Our results indicate that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall in southeast Africa was relatively stable, at least for the latter half of the 19th century. El Niño conditions appear to have had a more consistent modulating effect upon rainfall during the 19th century than La Niña. The rainfall chronology from this study is combined with other annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from mainland southern Africa and surrounding oceans as part of a multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction for the SRZ. This reconstruction confirms (i) the long-term importance of ENSO and Indian Ocean SSTs for modulating regional rainfall; and (ii) that summer precipitation has been declining progressively over the last 200 years

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“…Temporal trends in environmental conditions on the GRT, in Toliara, and in the region were assessed over a period of ca. 50 years, based on available historical records, recently collected data, and environmental proxies from coral cores taken in Ranobe lagoon off Ifaty, north of Toliara (Zinke et al 2004(Zinke et al , 2009; Fig. 1, Table 1).…”

Section: Study Site and Socioeconomic Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We evaluated the similarity in responses between villages by cluster analysis (Ward method) and then plotted the village respondents' mean agreement with the six restrictions for the two clusters formed from the similarity analysis. 18 O analysis from three coral cores taken off Ifaty and Toliara show the highest SSTs of the entire record since the early 1970s superimposed over a more gradual SST rise over the 20th century (Zinke et al 2004(Zinke et al , 2009). The coral δ 18 O SST trend between 1950 and 1995 was 0.016°C y -1 (Table 1), in close agreement with the rise reported from gridded SST (McClanahan et al 2009).…”

Section: Fisheries Status and Options For Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wicked Social-Ecological Problems Forcing Unprecedented Change on the Latitudinal Margins of Coral Reefs: the Case of Southwest Madagascar

Bruggemann¹,

Rodier²,

Guillaume³

et al. 2012

E&S

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ABSTRACT. High-latitude coral reefs may be a refuge and area of reef expansion under climate change. As these locations are expected to become dryer and as livestock and agricultural yields decline, coastal populations may become increasingly dependent on marine resources. To evaluate this social-ecological conundrum, we examined the Grand Récif of Toliara (GRT), southwest Madagascar, which was intensively studied in the 1960s and has been highly degraded since the 1980s. We analyzed the social and ecological published and unpublished literature on this region and provide new data to assess the magnitude of the changes and evaluate the causes of reef degradation. Top-down controls were identified as the major drivers: human population growth and migrations, overfishing, and climate change, specifically decreased rainfall and rising temperature. Water quality has not changed since originally studied, and bottom-up control was ruled out. The identified network of social-ecological processes acting at different scales implies that decision makers will face complex problems that are linked to broader social, economic, and policy issues. This characterizes wicked problems, which are often dealt with by partial solutions that are exploratory and include inputs from various stakeholders along with information sharing, knowledge synthesis, and trust building. A hybrid approach based on classical fishery management options and preferences, along with monitoring, feedback and forums for searching solutions, could move the process of adaptation forward once an adaptive and appropriately scaled governance system is functioning. This approach has broad implications for resources management given the emerging climate change and multiple social and environmental stresses.

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Western Indian Ocean marine and terrestrial records of climate variability: a review and new concepts on land–ocean interactions since AD 1660

Cited by 37 publications

References 83 publications

Changes in coral sensitivity to thermal anomalies

Changes in coral sensitivity to thermal anomalies

Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources

Wicked Social-Ecological Problems Forcing Unprecedented Change on the Latitudinal Margins of Coral Reefs: the Case of Southwest Madagascar

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