West African operational daily solar forecast errors and their link with meteorological conditions

Clauzel, Léo; Anquetin, Sandrine; Lavaysse, Christophe; Tremoy, Guillaume; Raynaud, Damien

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2024.120101

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…1a), on March 30th. The event was also chosen because it was not predicted in the solar forecast currently implemented for the Zagtouli solar farm, leading to solar forecast errors during the passage of the dust plume (Clauzel et al, 2024). Figure 1 illustrates that this event is characterised by a strong Harmattan flow, with surface winds from the South/South-West sweeping across the Bodélé Depression (Chad), where the potential for desert dust emissions is very high (Prospero et al, 2002;Washington et al, 2006).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Operational GHI forecasts for this solar farm are computed by the French company Steadysun. These forecasts are based on a multi-model, multi-member and multi-mesh grid aggregation, which is derived from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System and the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (Clauzel et al, 2024). In-situ measurements of GHI from pyranometers (Fig.…”

Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, they demonstrate that, at the second order, the air temperature affects the efficiency of solar cells, as both parameters are inversely correlated. Clauzel et al (2024) identified desert dust aerosol as a significant source of GHI forecast errors for the only two solar power plants in the Sahel region of Sococim (Senegal) and Zagtouli (Burkina Faso), particularly during the dry season. Dust aerosols are a key element in the West African climate and strongly influence solar farm production through their direct effect (aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), Briant et al, 2017) and indirect effects (aerosolcloud interaction (ACI), Tuccella et al, 2019) on radiation, and also through their deposition on solar panels (fouling effect, Diop et al, 2020, Aidara et al, 2023.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Solar radiation estimation in West Africa: impact of dust conditions during 2021 dry season

Clauzel,

Anquetin,

Lavaysse

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. The anticipated increase in solar energy production in West Africa requires high-quality solar radiation estimates, which is affected by meteorological conditions and in particular the presence of desert dust aerosols. This study examines the impact of incorporating desert dust into solar radiation and surface temperature estimations. The research focuses on a case study of a dust event in March 2021, which is characteristic of the dry season in West Africa. Significant desert aerosol emissions at the Bodélé depression are associated with a Harmattan flow that transports the plume westwards. Simulations of this dust event were conducted using the WRF meteorological model alone, as well as coupled with the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model, using three different datasets for the dust aerosol initial and boundary conditions (CAMS, GOCART, MERRA2). Results show that considering desert dust reduces estimation errors in global horizontal irradiance (GHI) by about 75 %. The dust plume caused an average 18 % reduction in surface solar radiation during the event. Additionally, the simulations indicated a positive bias in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and PM10 surface concentrations. The choice of dataset for initial and boundary conditions minimally influenced GHI, surface temperature, and AOD estimates, whereas PM10 concentrations and aerosol size distribution were significantly affected. This study underscores the importance of incorporating dust aerosols into solar forecasting for better accuracy.

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Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: 4mentioning

confidence: 99%