Welfare Chauvinism? Refugee Flows and Electoral Support for Populist-Right Parties in Industrial Democracies

Abstract

Abstract:In this paper we examine whether refugee flows are associated with an increase in electoral support for populist-right parties. The empirical evidence on this so far remains mixed. We argue that refugee inflows alone are an inaccurate predictor of the success of populist-right parties. Rather, refugee inflows can lead to a rise in electoral support for populist-right parties where traditional welfare states are expansive -the so called 'welfare chauvinism' argument, wherein natives already dependent on high levels of social welfare are likely to see refugees as interlopers who free-ride on welfare and thereby threaten the welfare of locals. Using panel data on 27 OECD countries during 1990-2014 period (25 years), we find no evidence to suggest that refugee inflows per se increase electoral support for populist-right parties. However, a positive effect of refugee inflows on electoral support for populist-right parties is conditional upon a higher degree of social welfare and unemployment benefit spending, which supports the propositions of 'welfare chauvinism.' Moreover, support for populist-right parties increase when the degree of labor market regulations and welfare spending is high. Our results are robust to alternative data, sample and estimation techniques.Keywords: Refugee flows, welfare state, and populist-right. ___________________________We thank Indra de Soysa for stimulating discussion on this topic. A moderately different version of this paper was presented at the BBQ conference (Heidelberg), VIP seminar series (Trondheim), SPIRe seminar series (Dublin) and we thank

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