Weibull ve Rayleigh Dağılımlarına Göre Elazığ İlinin Rüzgâr Enerjisi Potansiyelinin İstatiksel Analizi

Abstract

Statistical analysis of wind power density and wind speed distribution parameters in Elazig province  Determination of wind energy potential using Weibull and Rayleigh distributions  Change of wind speed with probability density function and cumulative density function Wind speed is not constant in each region and varies depending on surface and weather. Making appropriate and accurate predictions for wind is important in changing energy markets in recent years. There are two solution methods for predictions. These are increasing the number of measurements or getting characteristic of wind speed in the region with statistical methods. In this study, the statistical analysis of wind power density and wind speed distribution parameters in Elaziğ province was investigated using the hourly wind speed data measured by the General Directorate of Meteorology between 2005 and 2014. Weibull and Rayleigh distributions were used for modeling and the success of this modeling process was evaluated according to the parameters of R 2 , RMSE and  2. According to statistical criteria in wind data analysis of Elaziğ province, Weibull distribution is better than Rayleigh distribution (Table A). Table A. R 2 , RMSE and  2 values according to Weibull and Rayleigh distributions Years Weibull Distribution Rayleigh Distribution R 2 RMSE  2 R 2 RMSE 2 2005 0,927619 Purpose: The aim of this study is to determine the wind energy potential of Elazig province by using Weibull and Rayleigh distributions. Theory and Methods: The probability density distributions and power density were derived from time series data. Weibull and Rayleigh probability density function have been fitted to the measured probability distributions. The wind power density has been evaluated. Results: The Weibull model is generally better in fitting the measured yearly probability density distributions than the Rayleigh model, to the statistical criteria such as R 2 , RMSE and  2. Conclusion: It was concluded that it would be better to use the Weibull distribution in the analysis of wind data of Elaziğ.