Weather effects on nestling survival of great tits vary according to the developmental stage

Abstract

Organisms change breeding investments as a function of the environment, thereby maximizing reproductive success. Climate change studies of avian life-history have long focused on plasticity of laying dates and clutch sizes in response to weather conditions prior to clutch initiation. By contrast, effects of unpredictable weather events occurring after initial reproductive decisions are made have largely been ignored, despite becoming increasingly important with ongoing climate change. We studied the detrimental effects of fluctuations in temperature and precipitation during various nesting phases of great tits Parus major, identifying the developmental age windows where weather fluctuations affected hatching, nestling mass and fledging success. We used a longitudinal (8-year) dataset of great tits breeding in nest boxes in southern Germany and applied a recently introduced explorative approach that does not require a priori assumptions on the time windows (range of ages) over which weather may affect reproductive parameters. Lower temperatures and higher precipitation during the nestling phase negatively affected nestling mass and survival: nestlings between the ages 6 and 9 days were most susceptible to this form of variation in weather. Effects of weather did not differ between years, i.e. there was no evidence for 'good' versus 'bad' years. Future research should focus on the mechanisms underpinning effects of weather on nestling growth and survival in other populations and consider if age-dependent weather consequences occur in a wide variety of taxa, as specific developmental stages may serve as weak spots in a scenario of increasing recurrence of weather extremes.

Weather fluctuations are linked to nesting success and renesting decisions in saffron finches

“…Some variation in nest success was directly linked to the weather during incubation – rather than weeks before – and this happened specifically for the odds of eggs hatching. The effects of temperature and rain on success contrasted with those of temperate birds (Bordjan and Tome 2014, Marques‐Santos and Dingemanse 2020). Here, warmer temperatures during incubation correlated with an increased number of unviable or missing eggs, whereas abundant rainfall increased the odds of nest survival until hatching.…”

“…We included commonly evaluated traits for long‐term effects, such as the onset of breeding and clutch size. We chose later traits in the nest timeline for short‐term effects, such as nestling mass or fledging probability, because they may reveal accumulated effects of the environment when nests are already active (following Marques‐Santos and Dingemanse 2020).…”

“…average temperatures 1–0 or 3–1 weeks before egg‐laying). Usually, researchers may use the ‘climwin' package (van de Pol et al 2016) to streamline the process (Marques‐Santos and Dingemanse 2020). However, we chose to code in R instead of using the package to customize our workflow.…”

“…In the same way, rain may increase plant production and alter bird reproduction, especially those in dry regions that feed on seeds (Zann et al 1995, Lloyd 1999, Grant et al 2000, Mezquida and Marone 2003, Mares et al 2017). In the short‐term, extremes of low or high temperatures may cause cold and heat stress on offspring and females and influence their survival (Visser and Lessells 2001, Rodríguez and Barba 2016, Marques‐Santos and Dingemanse 2020). Rainfall was also seen to limit the rate of parental visits and nestling mass (Radford et al 2010).…”

Quantitative analysis of the orientation of white stork nestlings’ parents from video monitoring

“…Further observations coupled with meteorological data, from a station by the webcam for example, are required to draw statistically relevant conclusions for the species, also linking it to the breeding success, but this study offers a first insight on the question of orientation in the nest. Such studies, on weather influence on breeding success, have for instance recently been conducted for other species such as tits or finches (Gullett et al 2015, Marques-Santos and Dingemanse 2020, Marques-Santos et al 2021. Experiments in captivity would also be an asset to better understanding the role of wind for instance.…”