Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection

Rising, James; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Menezes, Ana De

doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acb2e3

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The results are essentially identical for all specifications (Figure 3d). Most concerns about confounding from effects of weather on COVID-19 (Rising et al, 2023) are addressed by the fixed effects in our model. However, as an additional robustness test we split our sample into the first half (January 2020 to May 2021) and the second half (June 2021 to October 15th 2022) and find essentially the same estimate, despite very different epidemiological and behavioural dynamics and containment policy regimes during those time periods (Figure 3e).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global variation in the preferred temperature for recreational outdoor activity

Linsenmeier

2023

Preprint

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The impacts of climate change will depend on how human societies adapt to higher temperatures, but adaptation is very difficult to measure and typically not accounted for in estimates of the costs of climate change. Here, we study whether people living in warmer countries prefer higher temperatures for their recreational outdoor activities. To do so, we examine a unique dataset of mobile phone usage in parks and similar places covering two and a half years and more than 5000 locations across 130 countries. We first exploit quasi-random variation in weather from one day to the next to derive country-specific dose-response functions and then identify country-specific temperature levels at which outdoor activity peaks. In a second step, we regress these locally optimal temperatures on the annual mean climate. Our results point to substantial but only partial adaptation to average climatic conditions. For every degree Celsius increase in mean temperature, the optimal temperature for outdoor activity increases by about 0.45 degrees Celsius. Ignoring adaptation biases projections of future changes, which we illustrate with simulations.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global variation in the preferred temperature for recreational outdoor activity

Linsenmeier

2023

Preprint

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“…It is important to note that significant correlations between temperatures and COVID-19 cases during outbreaks may be due to several factors, not just those proposed by the Usmani et al [12] hypothesis. Weather's impacts on COVID-19 transmission and detection can vary [26], with changes in weather having possible impacts on COVID-19 detection for up to a month or more. Furthermore, different locations can experience different variations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures

Magers,

Usmani,

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Health

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The occurrence of cases of COVID-19 suggests that it will likely become seasonally endemic in human populations. We seek to provide a quantification of the seasonality of the occurrence and severity of COVID-19 cases in human populations. Using global data, we show that the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 cases is a function of distinct seasons and climates. We investigated this at the county and the country scale using a comparison of seasonal means, correlation analyses using ambient air temperatures and dew point temperatures, and multiple linear regression techniques. We found that most locations had the highest incidence of COVID-19 during winter compared to other seasons. Regions closer to the equator had a higher incidence of COVID-19 during the summer than regions further from the equator. Regions close to the equator, where mean annual temperatures have less variance compared to those further from the equator, had smaller differences between seasonal COVID-19 incidence. Correlation and regression analyses showed that ambient air and dew point temperatures were significantly associated with COVID-19 incidence. Our results suggest that temperature and the environment are influential factors to understand the transmission of COVID-19 within the human population. This research provides empirical evidence that temperature changes are a strong indicator of seasonal COVID-19 outbreaks, and as such it will aid in planning for future outbreaks and for mitigating their impacts.

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Weather drives variation in COVID-19 transmission and detection

Cited by 2 publications

References 42 publications

Global variation in the preferred temperature for recreational outdoor activity

Global variation in the preferred temperature for recreational outdoor activity

Geographical quantification of the seasonality of transmission of COVID-19 in human populations as a function of the variability of temperatures

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