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Introduction. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has had a strong impact on the socio-economic situation in the country, especially on demographic processes. The article analyzes the change in the mortality rates in Russian regions and assesses the influence of various factors on them during the pandemic. Materials and Methods. The paper examined data from the Federal State Statistics Service on mortality rates in Russian regions. Based on the graphs analyzed and regression equations built, the factors that determined the increase in mortality rates during the pandemic and the degree of their influence were identified. Results. Changes in the rates of morbidity and mortality in Russian regions depended on the development of the healthcare system, demographic, socio-economic, and geographical factors, as well as on the actions of regional and federal authorities. The geographical location of the regions turned out to be the determining factor. The highest mortality rates were found in the regions located in the center of the European part of Russia at the intersection of transport routes. In some months, high mortality rates were observed in the regions bordering China, Kazakhstan, and Finland. The proportion of pensioners and the degree of decline in personal income were also significant. Discussion and Conclusion. Calculations have shown that at the beginning of both waves of the pandemic, the increase in mortality rates depended on the provision of the population of the regions with doctors and hospital beds. In the spring, the restrictions imposed restrained the spread of the disease, but led to an economic recession and an increase in unemployment. In the autumn, less severe restrictions were introduced, which led to a significant increase in mortality rates and a slight decline in the economy. The research results can be used to optimize the managerial decisions in the field of medical and demographic policy.
Introduction. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has had a strong impact on the socio-economic situation in the country, especially on demographic processes. The article analyzes the change in the mortality rates in Russian regions and assesses the influence of various factors on them during the pandemic. Materials and Methods. The paper examined data from the Federal State Statistics Service on mortality rates in Russian regions. Based on the graphs analyzed and regression equations built, the factors that determined the increase in mortality rates during the pandemic and the degree of their influence were identified. Results. Changes in the rates of morbidity and mortality in Russian regions depended on the development of the healthcare system, demographic, socio-economic, and geographical factors, as well as on the actions of regional and federal authorities. The geographical location of the regions turned out to be the determining factor. The highest mortality rates were found in the regions located in the center of the European part of Russia at the intersection of transport routes. In some months, high mortality rates were observed in the regions bordering China, Kazakhstan, and Finland. The proportion of pensioners and the degree of decline in personal income were also significant. Discussion and Conclusion. Calculations have shown that at the beginning of both waves of the pandemic, the increase in mortality rates depended on the provision of the population of the regions with doctors and hospital beds. In the spring, the restrictions imposed restrained the spread of the disease, but led to an economic recession and an increase in unemployment. In the autumn, less severe restrictions were introduced, which led to a significant increase in mortality rates and a slight decline in the economy. The research results can be used to optimize the managerial decisions in the field of medical and demographic policy.
This literature review summarizes the results of international studies conducted by WHO, WMO, EU, and other organizations, in the areas of assessment of climate change-induced urban health risks, and development of action plans for adaptation of public health care and other public governance bodies to climate change. The results of studies of the relationships between heat waves, cold spells, and mortality rates conducted in Russian cities have also been critically reviewed. The study cites included the largest cities (Moscow, Saint-Petersburg, etc.) situated in various climate zones: Arctic, South European part of Russia, continental and monsoon climate zones. These studies showed that heat waves in the cities with moderately continental climate typically lead to greater increases in all-cause mortality rates than cold spells, relative to the cities located in other climate zones. At the same time, the health impacts of cold spells were more pronounced than those of heat waves in the north cities, which was not observed in the Russian South or Middle Siberia cities. On average, cold spells are characterized by greater health risks in the north cities than in the south cities. The values of the 3rd and 97th percentiles of long-term distributions of daily mean temperatures can be used as the threshold values for hazardous cold and heat waves. The health action plans should be activated when daily mean temperatures fall below the cold threshold, or exceed the heat threshold. The values of temperature thresholds depend upon local climates and are similar to hygienic standards. Russia has adopted a National Plan for adaptation to health risks induced by climate change. This plan includes the measures specifically aimed at reductions of excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells. The National Plan prescribes that similar plans should be developed for all administrative subjects of the Russian Federation. Implementation of heat wave (or cold spell) early warning systems in combination with other preventive measures can effectively reduce the numbers of excess deaths during extreme weather events.
ФГБУН Федеральный исследовательский центр «Карельский научный центр Российской академии наук», г. Петрозаводск Цель: оценить влияние погодных факторов на количество вызовов скорой медицинской помощи ( ЧВ СМП) по поводу болезней органов дыхания (БОД) в городе Петрозаводске. Методы: Проведен линейный корреляционный анализ для оценки связи между среднемесячными значениями показателей погоды и ЧВ СМП с диагнозами острые инфекции верхних дыхательных путей (ОИВДП) (J06), вирусная пневмония (J12), острый бронхит (J20), астма (J45) в 2015-2017 гг. Проведен сравнительный анализ теплого (14 месяцев со среднемесячной температурой от +9,8 до +18,4 °C) и холодного (22 месяца с температурой от -14,9 до +5,0 °C) периодов. Результаты: В межгодовой динамике выявлено последовательное уменьшение ЧВ СМП по поводу вирусной пневмонии. Отмечен сезонный характер влияния температуры воздуха и перепадов давления атмосферы на ЧВ СМП, особенно по поводу ОИВДП. При сравнении теплого и холодного периодов влияние температурного фактора уменьшилось за исключением усиления его отрицательной связи с ЧВ СМП по поводу острого бронхита. Анализ отдельных сезонов показал, что для уверенного снижения числа обращений по поводу острого бронхита благоприятными являются только летние месяцы. Летом при большей скорости ветра, меньших температуре и влажности воздуха повышено ЧВ СМП по поводу острого бронхита. При уменьшении межсуточных перепадов давления и ослаблении ветра сокращается ЧВ СМП по поводу ОИВДП и БОД. Осенью наблюдалась положительная корреляция между повторяемостью северо-западного направления ветра, переносящего атмосферное загрязнение от основных местных источников, и перепадами давления в течение суток, с одной стороны, и ЧВ СМП по поводу БОД -с другой. Зимнее снижение влажности с декабря по февраль сопровождается увеличением ЧВ СМП по поводу вирусной пневмонии и БОД. В весеннее время уменьшение ЧВ СМП по поводу ОИВДП и БОД связано с меньшим количеством нижней облачности, увеличение -с б льшим. Выводы: Выявлены статистически значимые связи между погодными факторами и ЧВ СМП в г. Петрозаводске, которые необходимо учитывать при планировании работы СМП. Ключевые слова: погодные факторы, вызовы скорой медицинской помощи, болезни органов дыхания, корреляционный анализ
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