Weather and Crime—Cautious evidence from South Africa

Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Bruederle, Anna; Roberts, Gareth O.

doi:10.1093/qopen/qoac033

Cited by 3 publications

References 74 publications

(71 reference statements)

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When Climate Changes, So Does Violence: Examining the Link Between Weather and Crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, Brazil

DE SOUZA SÁ,

DA SILVA GOMES

2024

Clim. Change Econ.

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This paper examines the impact of weather shocks on crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, one of the states most affected by climate disasters in the Brazilian semi-arid region. We show that precipitation and temperature shocks in the form of droughts have a significant impact on the increase of rates of intentional lethal violent crimes (ILVC), property crimes (PC), and homicides. The effects of precipitation fluctuations in the form of droughts persist beyond the agricultural season and in the medium-term, and vary according to municipal and criminological characteristics. Moreover, adverse weather conditions (e.g., droughts) have a greater impact on income-related crimes. Consistent with this evidence, we find that the persistent response of crime rates to adverse weather conditions is driven by negative shocks to rural income, followed by a deterioration in overall economic activity, urban labor market conditions, and the government’s ability to provide public goods. The patterns we identify align with a relationship between weather and crime explained by reduced opportunity costs associated with criminal activity. Regarding policy recommendations, our findings suggest that local governments should prioritize investments in water infrastructure, agricultural irrigation, expansion of water coverage, and conservation of forested areas. These measures can contribute to climate adaptation and mitigate the economic impact of weather shocks on crime.

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When Climate Changes, So Does Violence: Examining the Link Between Weather and Crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, Brazil

DE SOUZA SÁ,

DA SILVA GOMES

2024

Clim. Change Econ.

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Global, regional, and national burdens of facial fractures: a systematic analysis of the global burden of Disease 2019

Zhang,

Xie,

2024

BMC Oral Health

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Background The incidence of facial fractures has undergone tremendous changes in recent years as a result of socio-economic development and aging populations. Currently, there is a lack of updated and comprehensive analyses of global trends and causes of facial fractures. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database is a product of a global research organization used to quantify the global impact of hundreds of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. The aim of this study was to update global burden of facial fractures from 1990 to 2019 by using the GBD2019. Materials and methods The present study extracted the global incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for facial fractures, as well as the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of these variables using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to assess the trends of ASRs. Results Between 1990 and 2019, the incidence of facial fractures increased from 8,943,707 to 10,676,340, but the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 161.5 to 138.8 per 100,000. Prevalence and YLDs exhibited the same trend as incidence. Over the 30 years, the incidence of facial fractures was consistently greater in males than in females. However, females aged ˃ 75 years had higher fracture incidence rates than males aged ˃ 75 years in 2019. The leading cause of facial fractures was falls, and both the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized years lived with disability rate (ASYR) of falls increased with age. Conclusion Facial fractures still represent a significant burden to the world. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs all showed increasing trends, while ASRs decreased gradually from 1990 to 2019. Enhancing the quality of facial fractures data is helpful for monitoring the burden of facial fractures.

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The impact of weather anomalies on violence in the subtropics: A cross-national comparison

Breetzke,

Corcoran

2024

Preprint

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Cross-national studies examining the relationship between weather and crime are rare. Reasons are manifold but include the differences in countries due to geographical, climatic, and seasonal variations. In contrast in this study we examine the causal impact of temperature and rainfall anomalies on violent crime in two locations located in comparable geographic and climatic zones: Khayelitsha (in South Africa) and Ipswich (in Australia). We use ANOVA and Tukey's tests to identify statistical meaningful differences (if any) in the impact of these weather anomalies on crime alongside the use of visualisations capturing the anomalous weather-violence relationship in these two contexts. Results show some similarities but also notable differences between locations which we attribute to their inherent socio-demographic differences which we expand upon. We conclude by highlighting the benefits of cross-national crime research, and motivate for its increased application in future research of this nature.

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Weather and Crime—Cautious evidence from South Africa

Cited by 3 publications

References 74 publications

When Climate Changes, So Does Violence: Examining the Link Between Weather and Crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, Brazil

When Climate Changes, So Does Violence: Examining the Link Between Weather and Crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, Brazil

Global, regional, and national burdens of facial fractures: a systematic analysis of the global burden of Disease 2019

The impact of weather anomalies on violence in the subtropics: A cross-national comparison

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