Weather and climate versus mortality in Lisbon (Portugal) since the 19th century

Abstract

a b s t r a c tA renewed interest on the impacts of climate change has spurred several studies on climate/health relationships. This study aims to detect and explain any changes in the relationships between climate and mortality in Lisbon from 1835 until 2012. The evaluation of mortality seasonal rhythms over time is based on the 100-Index per decades, annual Winter-Summer ratio, as well as other descriptive statistics. A change in the seasonal rhythm of mortality over the last 177 years was found. In the mid-19th century mortality peaked in summer, whereas in the 1890s and the 1900s there was slight monthly variability. On the contrary, a winter maximum has occurred since the 1940s, although a secondary summer peak of mortality may emerge during the most severe heat-waves. Although long term positive temperature trends were confirmed, no systematic positive mortality trends were found in the last three decades. The results suggest that mortality rhythm changes during the 19th and 20th century are not directly related to climatic reasons alone (except in the case of extreme weather events), but rather to improvements in hygienic, sanitary and nutrition conditions and advances in medicine. However, given the possible increase of summer heat waves in the future, and individuals increasing vulnerability, particularly in urban areas, such secondary peaks of mortality will tend to happen more frequently, unless adaptation of populations to hotter conditions takes place and/or measures are taken to protect people from high temperatures.

Evidence of social deprivation on the spatial patterns of excess winter mortality

“…Portugal is still described as the country with the highest excess winter mortality in Europe (Almendra et al 2012 ; Fowler et al 2015 ) and despite the improvements in living conditions and health care which have led to significant health gains over the last 20 years (e.g., life expectancy, infant mortality, and premature mortality), cold weather vulnerability, and excess winter mortality is not showing any signs of decrease (Nogueira et al 2006 ; Alcoforado et al 2015 ; Almendra et al 2015 , 2016b ).…”

Droughts in Portugal in the 18th century: A study based on newly found documentary data

“…To fill in a gap of historical climate information in western Iberia (e.g., the maps on p. 713 of Domínguez‐Castro et al, ), Portuguese data were retrieved and analysed in the frame of the KlimHist project (2012–2015; http://clima.ul.pt/Klimhist-project), following the research carried out earlier (Alcoforado et al, ; Taborda et al, ) in Southern Portugal (SP herein, Figure ). Previous KlimHist studies were devoted to different methodological and analytical aspects of climate reconstruction in Portugal since the 17th century (e.g., Santos et al, ; Alcoforado et al, ; Fragoso et al, ). More specifically, the current article focuses on the 18th century droughts in Portugal, by exploring the newly found documentary data through the KlimHist surveys.…”

“…ul.pt/Klimhist-project), following the research carried out earlier (Alcoforado et al, 2000;Taborda et al, 2004) in Southern Portugal (SP herein, Figure 1). Previous KlimHist studies were devoted to different methodological and analytical aspects of climate reconstruction in Portugal since the 17th century (e.g., Santos et al, 2013;Alcoforado et al, 2015;Fragoso et al, 2015). More specifically, the current article focuses on the 18th century droughts in Portugal, by exploring the newly found documentary data through the KlimHist surveys.…”

Using multiple disparate data sources to map heat vulnerability: Vancouver case study

“…Results vary substantially by region, likely as a result of climatic, infrastructural, and societal differences, so vulnerability factors found to be important elsewhere may not be applicable to Vancouver or other urban areas in Canada. Examples of European and US studies include those by Chestnut et al (), Naughton et al (), Robine et al (), Anderson and Bell (), García‐Herrera et al (), and Alcoforado et al (), and vulnerability indicators for the Canadian context have been summarized by Kosatsky et al (), Pengelly et al (), Rinner et al (), and Belanger et al ().…”

“…The scientific literature exploring physical and social factors related to heat vulnerability is extensive, but most studies have focused on the extreme heat event in Europe in 2003 or previous events in the United States (US). Results vary substantially by Chestnut et al (1998), Naughton et al (2002, Robine et al (2008), Anderson andBell (2009), Garc ıa-Herrera et al (2010), and Alcoforado et al (2015), and vulnerability indicators for the Canadian context have been summarized by Kosatsky et al (2005), Pengelly et al (2007), Rinner et al (2013), andBelanger et al (2015).…”