Waves and Storm Surges of Tropical Cyclones Over the Arabian Sea: Future Projections and Uncertainty Analysis

Abstract

The present study aims to address the future projection of waves and storm surges of Tropical cyclones over the Arabian Sea, using the atmosphere-ocean numerical models and CMIP5 climate models. A Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) approach was utilised to implement the future climate and a WRF-FVCOM-SWAN framework was utilized to estimate the changes of a historical event in the future climate. The uncertainties included in different parts of the framework can lead to remarkable changes in this future estimation and are required to be addressed and quantified for a more appropriate estimation. Different factors such as forcing, boundary condition, and physics play a significant role in the uncertainties of wave and surge models. The study revealed that the wind forcing provided by the WRF model is the governing factor with the highest importance.