Water Transmission Increases the Intensity of COVID-19 Outbreaks

Abstract

India suffered from a devastating 2021 spring outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), surpassing any other outbreaks before. However, the reason for the acceleration of the outbreak in India is still unknown. We describe the statistical characteristics of infected patients from the first case in India to June 2021, and trace the causes of the two outbreaks in a complete way, combined with data on natural disasters, environmental pollution and population movements etc. We found that water-to-human transmission accelerates COVID-19 spreading. The transmission rate is 382% higher than the human-to-human transmission rate during the 2020 summer outbreak in India. When syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) enters the human body directly through the water-oral transmission pathway, virus particles and nitrogen salt in the water accelerate viral infection and mutation rates in the gastrointestinal tract. Based on the results of the attribution analysis, without the current effective interventions, India could have experienced a third outbreak during the monsoon season this year, which would have increased the severity of the disaster and led to a South Asian economic crisis.

Heat waves accelerate the spread of infectious diseases

“…However, some objective rules can be obtained from the results of our analysis. Based on published research on factors affecting COVID-19, the R 2 in this study is within the range that can be interpreted ( Saputra et al, 2021 ; Rashed et al, 2020 ; Huang et al, 2022 ; Kodera et al, 2020 ) .

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“…Hot ambient conditions and the associated heat stress can increase the mortality and morbidity risks of various diseases ( Ebi et al, 2021 ). In addition to heat waves, during extreme weather events such as forest fires, heavy precipitation, floods, and storms, the usual assistance and rescue measures complicate personal protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, leading to an additional burden on the overall healthcare system ( Chan et al, 2022 ; Huang et al, 2022 ; Sannigrahi et al, 2022 ). Similar to COVID-19, climate change is a global problem, and its destructiveness has never been more urgent.…”

“…In addition, this data source has been cited in several articles ( Saha et al, 2020 ; Zhu et al, 2020 ; Wellenius et al, 2021 ). The data were also used in our previous publication ( Huang et al, 2022 ). Traceable data of the impacts of heat wave on pathogenic human diseases are available at https://camilo-mora.github.io/Diseases/ ( Mora et al, 2022 ).…”

“…Since COVID-19 shares a similar transmission pattern with other respiratory viruses such as seasonal influenza, it has significant associations with weather variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed ( Flaxman et al, 2020 ; Mallapaty, 2021 ; Ma et al, 2020 ). Meteorological conditions, such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, ultraviolet exposure, and precipitation, might influence the survival of the virus along transmission routes, change host vulnerability, and influence the activity patterns and immune systems of individuals ( Huang et al, 2022 ; Xu et al, 2021 ; Zheng et al, 2021 ). Understanding the impact of climate and environment on the transmission and outbreak of COVID-19 is crucial for the control and prevention of future outbreaks.…”