Water Scarcity Threats to National Food Security of Pakistan—Issues, Implications, and Way Forward

Munir, Muhammad Umar; Ahmad, Anwar; Hopmans, Jan W.; Belgacem, Azaiez Ouled; Baig, Mirza Barjees

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-72987-5_9

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Thus, food security remains one of the major objectives of the government of Pakistan (Ali et al, 2021), as Pakistan is one of the ten countries in the world being seriously affected by climate change (Mohsin et al, 2022b). It has been suggested by previous studies (Prodhan et al, 2022;Akram et al, 2022;Munir et al, 2021;Hashmi et al, 2021) that Pakistan has a very high probability of having one of the world's highest agricultural productivity and will also be at the highest risk of yield loss with current trends and future climate change scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Long- and Short Run Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Shar

Bughio

et al. 2022

Preprint

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This study examines the long- and short-run asymmetrical effects of climate change on crop production by analyzing an annual time series from 1990 to 2019. In order to model the long-run and short-run cointegrations of a number of variables across time, as well as their causality directions, an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method was employed. The results of the study were also analyzed using a regression model in order to assess the reliability of the findings. As a preliminary result, a causal relationship between the variables, on a long-term basis, has been established using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study found that crop production and carbon dioxide emissions in the country have a very strong relationship both on a short-term as well as a long-term basis, as well as showing a positive relationship between labor force, fertilizer use, and water availability over the long-term. A long-term analysis of the labor force, fertilizer use, and water availability shows a significant positive correlation between the three variables. As a result of the short-run study, several factors were positively and statistically significant, including carbon dioxide emissions, temperature, labor force, and fertilizer use. There was a significant influence of both climatic and non-climatic factors on Pakistan's crop production based on a paired Granger causality test. Based on the study's conclusions, Pakistan's policymakers must develop agricultural policies, strategies, and plans for the purpose of reducing carbon dioxide emissions, according to the conclusion of the study. Thus, by encouraging environmentally friendly farming methods, the country will be able to increase its efforts toward achieve sustainable agriculture. It is important for the country to promote environmentally friendly farming in order to achieve a sustainable agriculture industry.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Long- and Short Run Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Shar

Bughio

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The sector is pivotal in national food security (FAO, 2018) and contributes substantially to the country's economy. However, climate change, manifested through changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, increasingly threatens the sustainability of Pakistan's agriculture (Munir et al, 2021), and has profound implications for water resources and agricultural productivity (Khan et al, 2021a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on crop water requirements and agricultural water supply across different climatic zones of Pakistan

Shafeeque,

Bibi

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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This study investigates the potential impacts of future climate change on crop water requirements (CWR) in different climatic zones of Pakistan and the subsequent implications for agricultural water demand and supply. Using the latest CMIP6 climate projections, we focused on Rabi and Kharif crop seasons, which are crucial for the growth of major crops in Pakistan. An empirical climate-crop and a hydrological model based on the Budyko theory were modified and forced to project future CWR changes and the potential widening of the water demand-supply gap until 2,100. Our results indicate a significant rise in mean annual CWR across all zones and emissions scenarios, with increasing rates at 2.30–2.57 mm/yr under SSP585 and 1.0–1.26 mm/yr under SSP245. Both Rabi and Kharif seasons show rising CWR, notably more under SSP585 (Kharif: 8%–14%, Rabi: 12%–15%) than SSP245 (Kharif: 4%–7%, Rabi: 6%–8%). The demand-supply gap is expected to grow notably, with arid and semi-arid zones being the most affected. Compared to 2015–2025, by 2091–2,100, the gap increased by 7%–15% (SSP245) and 15%–28% (SSP585) for Kharif and 7%–13% (SSP245) and 13%–32% (SSP585) for Rabi. To address these challenges, we recommend strategies like enhancing irrigation efficiency, adjusting crop patterns, and developing heat-resilient crops. Our insights aim to inform policy decisions on agriculture and water management in Pakistan under future climate change.

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“…Agriculture's lifeblood, as well as the backbone of the national economy and human progress, is water (Munir et al, 2021). The status of water resources and their usage have become essential reference points for assessing a country's economy's long-term growth in an area (Zhang, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing Water Saving Measures and Water-Use Efficiency of Wheat Growers in Sindh, Pakistan

Khajjak

Mangan²

2022

J. Econ. Impact

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As the food supplies will have to be increased according to the growing population, water demand will be on the rise in the future. Therefore, improved water consumption patterns must be followed to match future food demands. The paper analyzes the farmer’s adoption of improved irrigation technology to avoid excessive irrigation water use in cultivating crops. In addition, this paper also investigated the factors influencing the water-use efficiency of the farmers. A total of 390 farmers who grew wheat crops were selected from the Naushahro Feroz and Benazirabad districts of Sindh, Pakistan. Socio-economic variables and efficiency scores of the respondents were taken as variables, and both binomial logistic and Tobit regression models were applied. Results indicated that household head’s experience and formal education have a positive and significant impact on their decision to adopt improved irrigation and their efficiency scores. The elasticities reveal that a 1 % increase in experience of farming possesses the probability of lining the water courses by 23%. Whereas, with the change of 1% in the formal education of respondents, the tendency to laser land leveling changed by 0.1%. In comparison, the distance of the farm from the canal and the area of the farm bears a negative impact on water conserving measures opted by them and their water-use efficiency scores. It was found that proper lining of the water courses, usage of drought tolerant varieties of crops, irrigation technology adoption, and laser land leveling were the measures taken to avoid the excessive use of irrigation water. These measures were found to significantly impact the water-use efficiency scores of sampled farmers. These findings might be helpful for researchers and policymakers to realize such factors influencing the adoption of farmers and their farm efficiency.

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Water Scarcity Threats to National Food Security of Pakistan—Issues, Implications, and Way Forward

Cited by 7 publications

References 7 publications

Evaluating the Long- and Short Run Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Evaluating the Long- and Short Run Asymmetrical Effects of Climate Change on Crop Production: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Assessing the impact of future climate scenarios on crop water requirements and agricultural water supply across different climatic zones of Pakistan

Factors Influencing Water Saving Measures and Water-Use Efficiency of Wheat Growers in Sindh, Pakistan

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