Water regime of lake Baikal under conditions of climate change and anthropogenic influence

Sinyukovich, V. N.; Chernyshov, M.S.

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2019.05.023

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Special attention in anthropogenic factors is paid to the history of development, ethno-social and economic conditions of the region's development. Such conditions include mining [8] and its mapping [9], as well as climate change and anthropogenic loads [10].…”

Section: Materials and Methods (The Model)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Results of Nature Management in the Baikal Natural Territory

Kirillov¹,

Slipenchuk²,

Vorobyevskaya³

2020

Proceedings of the IV International Scientific and Practical Conference 'Anthropogenic Transformation of Geospace: Nature, Econ

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Assessment of environmental activities in the Baikal natural territory is an important direction of nature management rationalization in the region due to the high nature-oriented status of the territory as a World Heritage Site and the uniqueness of its natural, ecological, cultural and historical features. Analysis of the existing structure of nature management in the Republic of Buryatia has shown a vast variety of natural benefits that are not fully used at the present time, and in this connection, it is necessary to identify priority areas of using natural resource potential with an increase in the scale of environmental activities. It is extremely important to identify current and potential conflicts of nature management associated with the state regulation of environmental protection and the search for priority investment objects, the daily activities of the population living in specially protected natural areas. Modern legislation concerning the protection of lake Baikal needs to be revised, due to the inability of local population to conduct the necessary activities in the Baikal natural territory in the conditions of environmental restrictions.

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Section: Materials and Methods (The Model)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Results of Nature Management in the Baikal Natural Territory

Kirillov¹,

Slipenchuk²,

Vorobyevskaya³

2020

Proceedings of the IV International Scientific and Practical Conference 'Anthropogenic Transformation of Geospace: Nature, Econ

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“…Accurate mapping of lake Water Surface Areas (WSA) is essential to assess the amount of surface water available [1][2][3][4][5]. WSA is also helpful in determining the relationship between climate and water resources [6][7][8][9] and for assessing the impacts of changing water surfaces, which is crucial in water resources management [10][11]. The various methods for the extraction 41 of water surface from remote sensing data fall into two general categories: single-band and 42 multi-band techniques.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake Surface Area Forecasting Using Integrated Satellite-SARIMA-Long-Short-Term Memory Model

Soltani

Azari

Zeynoddin

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Lake Water Surface Area (WSA) plays a vital role in environmental preservation and future water resource planning and management. Accurately mapping, monitoring and forecasting Lake WSA changes are of great importance to regulatory agencies. This study used the MODIS satellite images to extract a monthly time series of WSA of two lakes located in Iran from 2001 to 2019. Following a consequence of image and time series preprocessing to obtain the preprocessed lake surface area time series, the outcomes were modeled by the Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning (DL) method, the stochastic Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method and hybridization of these two techniques with the objective of developing WSA forecasts. After separate standardization and normalization of AL TS and reevaluation of the preprocessed data, the SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)12 model outperformed sole LSTM models with correlation index of (R) 0.819, mean absolute error (MAE) of 49.425 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.106. On the other hand, the hybridization (stochastic-DL) enhanced the reproduction of the primal statistical properties of WSA data and caused better mediation. However, the other accuracy indices did not change markedly (R 0.819, MAE 49.310, MAPE 0.105). The multi-step preprocessing and reevaluation also caused all LSTM models to produce their best results by less than 12 inputs.

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“…However, (Dorjsuren et al 2018a) reported a slight increase in both summer and annual precipitation in the Mongolian part of the basin in 1979-2016, with a signi cant decrease in river runoff. Based on NCEP/NCAP reanalysis data (Sinyukovich and Chernyshov 2019b) reported that decrease of precipitation in 1971-2017 was insigni cant, reaching 6 mm only in the southern part of the Selenga catchment area. Also, it was reported that the annual precipitation in the Mongolian part of the basin in 1996-2015 compared to 1978-1995 decreased from 300 mm to 272 mm, and the annual runoff decreased by 37%.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, there is a lack of quantitative estimates of the particular climatic drivers impacts on abrupt changes in water delivery to Lake Baikal. Some studies showed importance of evaporation in ow decline (Sinyukovich and Chernyshov 2019b;Zorigt et al 2019) but some stress the importance of precipitation (Frolova et al 2017). Furthermore, it is remains unclear what cause evaporation change in BC on a basin scale (Minderlein and Menzel 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impact On Flood Runoff Over Lake Baikal Catchment

Grigorev¹,

Kharlamov²,

Semenova³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Water level and distribution of dissolved and suspended matter of Lake Baikal are strongly affected by river inflow during rain-driven floods. This study analyses river flow changes at 44 streamflow gauges and related precipitation, evaporation, potential evaporation and soil moisture obtained from ERA5-Land dataset. Based on Sen-Slope trend estimator, Mann–Kendall non-parametric test, and using dominant analyses we estimated influence of meteorological parameters on river flow during 1979-2019. Using ridge-regression we found significant relationships between precipitation elasticity of river flow and catchments features. Half of the gauges in eastern part of Selenga river basin showed a significant decreasing trend of average and maximum river flow (up to -2.9%/year). No changes in central volume date of flood flow have been found. A reduction in rainfall amounts explains more than 60% of runoff decline. Decrease in evaporation is observed where precipitation decrease is 0.8%/y or more. Catchments where the precipitation trends are not as substantial are associated with increasing evaporation as a result of the increase of potential evaporation. Negative trends of precipitation are accompanied by negative trends of soil moisture. Finally, the study reveals sensitivity of the catchments with steep slopes in humid area to precipitation change.

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Water regime of lake Baikal under conditions of climate change and anthropogenic influence

Cited by 17 publications

References 10 publications

Results of Nature Management in the Baikal Natural Territory

Results of Nature Management in the Baikal Natural Territory

Lake Surface Area Forecasting Using Integrated Satellite-SARIMA-Long-Short-Term Memory Model

Climate Change Impact On Flood Runoff Over Lake Baikal Catchment

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