Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis

Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Schuerch, Mark; Wolff, Claudia; Spencer, Tom; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniël; Brown, Sally; Nicholls, Robert J.

doi:10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019

Cited by 51 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…To calculate overland inundation from near-shore tide and surge levels we used a GIS-based inundation routine, similar to Vafeidis et al (2019). Extreme sea levels from the nearest GTSR location are projected at the coastline.…”

Section: Flood Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global scale benefit-cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers

Tiggeloven

Moel

Winsemius

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures at the global scale, which accounts for the influence of different flood risk drivers (namely: sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change). Globally, we find that the estimated expected annual damage (EAD) increases by a factor of 150 between 2010 and 2080, if we assume that no adaptation takes place. We find that 15 countries account for approximately 90 % of this increase. We then explore four different adaptation objectives and find that they all show high potential to cost-effectively reduce (future) coastal flood risk at the global scale. Attributing the total costs for optimal protection standards, we find that sea-level rise contributes the most to the total costs of adaptation. However, the other drivers also play an important role. The results of this study can be used to highlight potential savings through adaptation at the global scale.

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Section: Flood Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global scale benefit-cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers

Tiggeloven

Moel

Winsemius

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…Beck et al (2018) estimate the global flood protection savings that can be provided by coral reefs. Vafeidis et al (2019) investigate the uncertainty introduced to global coastal risk modelling by the flood attenuation land inwards. They show that the uncertainties in attenuation are similar in size to the uncertainties in sea level rise, suggesting this is an important future research direction.…”

Section: Coastal Floodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For coastal flooding, the fully hydrodynamic model GTSM is now being used to simulate water levels due to surge and tide up to the coastline, but then simple planar models are used to translate these water levels into inundation maps on land. Vafeidis et al (2019) have shown the importance of accounting for hydrodynamic processes by developing an approach to assess the impacts of water-level attenuation due to different land cover on flood hazard. This approach can be used as a first step towards improving global coastal flood risk assessment.…”

Section: Hazardmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regional and city-level studies showing elements of these benefits have been demonstrated for multiple risks using coupled hazard models with cellular-automata land use models and capital stock models (Lallemant, 2015;Riddell et al, 2019). Global dynamic models of urban and land use change do however exist, and efforts could be made to effectively couple these with global hazard and risk models (Hasegawa et al, 2017;Van Asselen and Verburg, 2013).…”

Section: Drr Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

Ward

Blauhut

Bloemendaal

et al. 2020

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

183

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Abstract. Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales. Through this paper, we hope to encourage further dialogue on knowledge sharing between disciplines and communities working on different hazards and risk and at different spatial scales.

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“…Another limitation of the assessment is applying a bathtub model that assumes all coastal land below a given water level and hydrologically connected to the ocean or behind protection structures such as levees, as potentially exposed directly or indirectly to flooding from extreme coastal water levels (including groundwater). The bathtub approach tends to overestimate coastal flooding extents at local-scales when caused by episodic events and to a larger extent along mildly sloped terrains [36,37]. In New Zealand, these terrains are representative of most major urban areas with >30,000 population.…”

Section: Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise

et al. 2020

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Coastal flooding from extreme sea levels will increase in frequency and magnitude as global climate change forces sea-level rise (SLR). Extreme sea-level events, rare in the recent past (i.e., once per century), are projected to occur at least once per year by 2050 along many of the world's coastlines. Information showing where and how built-environment exposure increases with SLR, enables timely adaptation before damaging thresholds are reached. This study presents a first national-scale assessment of New Zealand's built-environment exposure to future coastal flooding. We use an analytical risk model framework, "RiskScape", to enumerate land, buildings and infrastructure exposed to a present and future 100-year extreme sea-level flood event (ESL 100 ). We used high-resolution topographic data to assess incremental exposure to 0.1 m SLR increases. This approach detects variable rates in the potential magnitude and timing of future flood exposure in response to SLR over decadal scales. National built-land and asset exposure to ESL 100 flooding doubles with less than 1 m SLR, indicating low-lying areas are likely to experience rapid exposure increases from modest increases in SLR expected within the next few decades. This highlights an urgent need for national and regional actions to anticipate and adaptively plan to reduce future socio-economic impacts arising from flood exposure to extreme sea-levels and SLR.

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Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis

Cited by 51 publications

References 56 publications

Global scale benefit-cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers

Global scale benefit-cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers

Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise

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