Water for cities: The impact of climate change and demographic growth in the tropical Andes

Buytaert, Wouter; Bièvre, Bert De

doi:10.1029/2011wr011755

Cited by 183 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…It will be critical to establish the impact of permafrost and rock glacier recession on water supply for large urban centres such as El Alto and La Paz, especially as they lie in a region already suffering acute water scarcity (Rangecroft et al 2013). As one of South America's fastest growing cities, water stresses are expected to be amplified in La Paz by glacier recession, population increase, and projected increases in rural-to-urban migration driven by climate change and westernization of lifestyles (Vanham and Rauch 2010;Buytaert and De Bièvre 2012;Rangecroft et al 2013). These projected changes in demand combined with changes to water supplies are expected to have critical negative impacts on water security, affecting environmental, economic and social systems (Bradley et al 2006;Rangecroft et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

et al. 2016

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Water resources in many of the world's arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0°C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 % under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 % for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America's fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

et al. 2016

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“…glacier retreat and its impact on meltwater availability downstream) has emerged over the past decade, there is an increasing realization that the water demand side may be an equally, if not more, important aspect of this equation Drenkhan et al, 2015;Rasmussen, 2016;Carey et al, 2017). Buytaert and de Bievre (2012) for example analyzed future water supply and demand for four large cities in the Andes (Bogota, Quito, Lima, La Paz), of which one (La Paz) receives a significant water supply contribution from glacier melt, under a range of future scenarios. Their results suggest that future increases in water demand induced by demographic changes (population growth) will likely outpace any changes in water supply due to climate change, regardless of uncertainties in future growth scenarios.…”

Section: Socio-economic (Water Demand Side) Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed in wide regions of the tropical Andes water scarcity will increase regardless of climate change scenario, speed and magnitude of glacier retreat (Buytaert and de Bievre, 2012). It is therefore indispensable to include socioeconomic, cultural, legal and political aspects of water use and regulations at all stages of future socio-hydrologic modeling attempts (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Vuille

Carey

Huggel

et al. 2018

Earth-Science Reviews

250

213

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Glaciers in the tropical Andes have been retreating for the past several decades, leading to a temporary increase in dry season water supply downstream. Projected future glacier shrinkage, however, will lead to a long-term reduction in dry season river discharge from glacierized catchments. This glacier retreat is closely related to the observed increase in high-elevation, surface air temperature in the region. Future projections using a simple freezing level height-equilibrium-line altitude scaling approach suggest that glaciers in the inner tropics, such as Antizana in Ecuador, may be most vulnerable to future warming while glaciers in the more arid outer tropics, such as Zongo in Bolivia, may persist, albeit in a smaller size, throughout the 21st century regardless of emission scenario. Nonetheless many uncertainties persist, most notably problems with accurate snowfall measurements in the glacier accumulation zone, uncertainties in establishing accurate thickness measurements on glaciers, unknown future changes associated with local-scale circulation and cloud cover affecting glacier energy balance, the role of aerosols and in particular black carbon deposition on Andean glaciers, and the role of groundwater and aquifers interacting with glacier meltwater.The reduction in water supply for export-oriented agriculture, mining, hydropower production and human consumption are the most commonly discussed concerns associated with glacier retreat, but many other aspects including glacial hazards, tourism and recreation, and ecosystem integrity are also affected by glacier retreat. Social and political problems surrounding water allocation for subsistence farming have led to conflicts due to lack of adequate water governance. Local water management practices in many regions reflect cultural belief systems, perceptions and spiritual values and glacier retreat in some places is seen as a threat to these local livelihoods.Comprehensive adaptation strategies, if they are to be successful, therefore need to consider science, policy, culture and practice, and involve local populations. Planning needs to be based not only on future scenarios derived from physically-based numerical models, but must also consider societal needs, economic agendas, political conflicts, socioeconomic inequality and cultural values. This review elaborates on the need for adaptation as well as the challenges and constraints many adaptation projects are faced with, and lays out future directions where opportunities exist to develop successful, culturally acceptable and sustainable adaptation strategies.

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“…discharge, runoff, soil moisture (Chiew et al 2009;Buytaert and De Bièvre 2012). However, it is apparent that the changes in hydrological extremes, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions

et al. 2016

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We investigate simulated hydrological extremes (i.e., high and low flows) under the present and future climatic conditions for five river basins worldwide: the Ganges, Lena, Niger, Rhine, and Tagus. Future projections are based on five GCMs and four emission scenarios. We analyse results from the HYPE, mHM, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 hydrological models calibrated and validated to simulate each river. The use of different impact models and future projections allows for an assessment of the uncertainty of future impacts. The analysis of extremes is conducted for four different time horizons: reference (1981-2010), early-century (2006-2035), mid-century (2036-2065) and end-century (2070-2099). In addition, Sen's non-parametric estimator of slope is used to calculate the magnitude of trend in extremes, whose statistical significance is assessed by the Mann-Kendall test. Overall, the impact of climate change is more severe at the end of the century and particularly in dry regions. High flows are generally sensitive to changes in precipitation, however sensitivity varies between the basins. Finally, results show that conclusions in climate change impact Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing, China studies can be highly influenced by uncertainty both in the climate and impact models, whilst the sensitivity to climate modelling uncertainty becoming greater than hydrological model uncertainty in the dry regions.

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Water for cities: The impact of climate change and demographic growth in the tropical Andes

Cited by 183 publications

References 53 publications

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Rapid decline of snow and ice in the tropical Andes – Impacts, uncertainties and challenges ahead

Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions

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