Water dragon? China, power shifts and soft balancing in the South Pacific

Abstract

As China expands its foreign policy interests and strategic power further into the Pacific Ocean, a division is developing between Beijing's policies in the western Pacific (around East and Southeast Asia), which have begun to assume a more assertive strategic role, and the South Pacific where China is instead seeking to engage in 'soft balancing' power behaviour towards American and by extension Australian and New Zealand interests there. This is being accomplished through China establishing itself as an alternative aid donor to its Melanesian and Polynesian partners and improving its diplomatic stature in the region. Although it is highly unlikely that the South Pacific will see the emergence of 'hard' or military power competition between China and the West, Beijing's increased economic and diplomatic presence is beginning to have a significant impact on Western strategic thinking. These changes have prompted moves by Washington to 're-balance' the region, and Australia and New Zealand to contemplate how best to engage China in what was traditionally seen as their area of interest. This would suggest that soft balancing, while non-military in nature, may nonetheless create much policy debate on shifts in state power.

Self-determinable Development of Small Islands

“…However, the impact of an impressive increase in military spending may not be quite as significant as some Western commentators suggest, and, in any case, it is clear that China will not have the military capacity to challenge the global dominance of the United States any time soon (see, e.g., Erickson and Liff 2013;Lanteigne 2012). However, the impact of an impressive increase in military spending may not be quite as significant as some Western commentators suggest, and, in any case, it is clear that China will not have the military capacity to challenge the global dominance of the United States any time soon (see, e.g., Erickson and Liff 2013;Lanteigne 2012).…”

The Strategic Context of the New Pacific Diplomacy

“…The relevant point here is that it provides the lens through which strategy and diplomacy in the Pacific is viewed. This is why there is much debate over whether China is, in fact, challenging the US and its metropolitan power proxies in the Pacific (O'Keefe 2014;Lanteigne 2012;Hansen 2008;Yang 2011;Sen 2015).…”

Balancing on the Shoulders of Giants: Moldova's Foreign Policy toward Russia and the European Union

“…Measurement varies, but usually points to economic ties, institutional or not, that provide benefits to weaker states and undermine the economic influence of the stronger state. For example, Lanteigne (:30) avers that “by far the most visible example of China's soft balancing behavior in the South Pacific has been in the area of aid and development assistance” with the expectation that stronger economic ties would balance American power.…”

“…Other explanations, both at the structural and domestic level, remain under‐researched. Lanteigne () and He () point out that high levels of economic interdependence make soft rather than hard balancing more likely (also see Oswald and McDougall ). Corrales () and Saltzman () are among the few authors who have spoken of the importance a permissive international environment plays in facilitating behavior, which suggests a more complicated relationship between the international structure and soft balancing.…”