Water conflict between Pakistan and India: Implications to regional peace and security

Abstract

Pakistan and India are water stressed countries and the seed of water conflict between the two has been sowed by the Punjab boundary commission at the time of Partition. Trans-boundary water treaties have played a significant role in resolving the water disputes though the mechanism of conflict resolution varies and structurally fails to address the future problems that may arise. Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has been examined as an efficacious Model of conflict resolution and induced cooperation from 1960s to 1980s. Pakistan claimed that India is violating IWT by building dams and diverting waters of Western Rivers flowing from India to Pakistan. Therefore, the research attempts to answer the following questions. What is the cumulative effect of Indian dams being constructed on the Western Rivers? Can India Unilaterally withdraw the treaty? What would be the implications if India violates the treaty? Holistic content analysis of qualitative method and conflict theory has been used to investigate the water conflict between Pakistan and India. The key findings are that violation of treaty by India is perceived as security threat by Pakistan and also increase its economic concerns. The tension between the two neighbours over water sharing can lead to water war which poses serious threats to regional peace and security.

Effects of Industrialization on Indo-Pak Water Politics: A Comparative Study of Egypt in Hindsight – A Pakistan Perspective

“…India further explained that such releases after the monsoon season are routine, and they did not have any plans to continue this gesture. (Kishwar Munir, 2021) Experts agree that Pakistan, like the rest of the globe, has entered the fifth industrial revolution as a result of technological advancements. The best evidence of Pakistan's fifth revolution is that It now has about 80 million mobile broadband customers, and the e-commerce industry is preparing for a strong future.…”

“…In a quiet parallel way, the western rivers, Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus, were given to Pakistan and obliged India to not interfere in the flow of water. (Kishwar Munir, 2021) In case of a dispute, as per Article IX of the treaty, a commission constituting an expert from both Pakistan and India would be established. The commission will resolve the issue.…”

Indo-Pak Kashmir Relations on the Eve of Agtech in the Agriculture Sector of Pakistan

“…If India builds large hydroelectric dams on the western rivers, Pakistan's agriculture could suffer significantly, losing up to a month's worth of river flow, which could potentially ruin an entire planting season (Qamar, September 2005). For example, the Wullar barrage, if utilized by India, has the potential to disrupt Pakistan's triple canal projects (Upper Jhelum Canal, Upper Chenab Canal, and Lower Bari Doab Canal), and India could use this to intimidate Pakistan (Kishwar Munir, 2021). The loud and threatening statement of Modi ``Blood and water cannot flow together" still lingers in the air contributing to the dark clouds over the two countries' relations.…”

“…First, Both India and Pakistan, as per the World bank report, due to its high population and population growth are on their way to become water-deficient countries. The present water availability cannot cater for the needs of India and Pakistan (Kishwar Munir, 2021)Secondly, use of water as a tool to push the lower riparian state on the back foot for security reasons and use it as a diplomatic tool, historically, has its own benefits for the upper riparian states. For instance, Haile Selassie of Utopia exploited its upper riparian states' status in the Nile River Basin for the country's territorial interests in Eritrea on which Egypt had put up claim.…”

“…In 2016, following a terrorist attack, Indian Prime Minister Modi threatened to revoke the Indus Water Treaty, stating that "blood and water cannot flow together." (Mirza, 2011)During a meeting, PM Modi decided to respond to Pakistan through water and fully utilize the potential of the western rivers (Kishwar Munir, 2021). Since then, India has continuously made statements at the highest level, threatening to cut off water to Pakistan.…”