Water collapse in Brazil: the danger of relying on what you neglect

Dobrovolski, Ricardo; Rattis, Ludmila

doi:10.1016/j.ncon.2015.03.006

Cited by 59 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…A certain part of kinetic energy of air also dissipates outside the atmosphere, as it goes to generate the kinetic energy of waves and potential energy of oceanic stratification to drive oceanic circulation (Wang and Huang, 2004;Ferrari and Wunsch, 2009;Tailleux, 2010).…”

Section: Kinetic Power and The Gravitational Power Of Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the global atmospheric power budget

Makarieva¹,

Gorshkov²,

Nefiodov³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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The power of atmospheric circulation is a key measure of the Earth's climate system. The mismatch between predictions and observations under a warming climate calls for a reassessment of how atmospheric power $W$ is defined, estimated and constrained. Here we review published formulations for $W$ and show how they differ when applied to a moist atmosphere. Three factors, a non-zero source/sink in the continuity equation, the difference between velocities of gaseous air and condensate, and interaction between the gas and condensate modifying the equations of motion, affect the formulation of $W$. Starting from the thermodynamic definition of mechanical work, we derive an expression for $W$ from an explicit consideration of the equations of motion and continuity. Our analyses clarify how some past formulations are incomplete or invalid. Three caveats are identified. First, $W$ critically depends on the boundary condition for gaseous air velocity at the Earth's surface. Second, confusion between gaseous air velocity and mean velocity of air and condensate in the expression for $W$ results in gross errors despite the observed magnitudes of these velocities are very close. Third, $W$ expressed in terms of measurable atmospheric parameters, air pressure and velocity, is scale-specific; this must be taken into account when adding contributions to $W$ from different processes. We present a formulation of the atmospheric power budget, which distinguishes three components of $W$: the kinetic power associated with horizontal pressure gradients ($W_K$), the gravitational power of precipitation ($W_P$) and the condensate loading ($W_c$). We use MERRA and NCAR/NCEP re-analyses to evaluate the atmospheric power budget at different scales: $W_K$ increases with temporal resolution approaching our theoretical estimate for condensation-induced circulation when all convective motion is resolved.Comment: 55 pages, 14 figures; minor revisions after another discussion, see https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-17-AC7 and www.bioticregulation.ru/ab.php?id=h

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Section: Kinetic Power and The Gravitational Power Of Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the global atmospheric power budget

Makarieva¹,

Gorshkov²,

Nefiodov³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…These two cities are the capitals of the homonymous states which are responsible for 43% of Brazilian gross domestic product [5]. Due to the droughts in Brazil, analysts have predicted potential massive loss in agriculture in the year 2014 which could reach millions of dollars [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Availability of São Francisco River Basin Based on a Space-Borne Geodetic Sensor

Sun

Ferreira

et al. 2016

Water

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Brazil has recently experienced one of its worst droughts in the last 80 years, with wide-ranging consequences for water supply restrictions, energy rationing, and agricultural losses. Northeast and Southeast Brazil, which share the São Francisco River basin (SFRB), have experienced serious precipitation reduction since 2011. We used terrestrial water-storage (TWS) fields, inverted from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission measurements, to assess and quantify the ongoing drought over the SFRB. We found a water loss rate of 3.30 km 3 /year over the time-span of April 2002 to March 2015. In addition, the TWS drought index (TWSDI) showed the extension of the recent drought that has jeopardized the SFRB since January 2012, and which reached its maximum in July 2015 (the end of TWS time series). In this sense there seems to be a linkage between the TWSDI (wetness/dryness) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in terms of the wavelet coherence, at the semi-annual and biennial bands, suggesting a relationship between the two. While acknowledging that further investigation is needed, we believe that our findings should contribute to the water management policies by quantifying the impact of this drought event over the SFRB.

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“…Similar to several other Atlantic Forest regions (Ribeiro et al 2009), 76.5% of the rivers comprising the Cantareira system have had their riparian forest impacted (Hirota 2014). Not surprisingly, the region recently faced the most severe drought on record, putting at risk the water supply for more than 8.8 million people (Dobrovolski and Rattis 2015). Thus, we suggest that riparian forest be restored in the Atlantic Forest to aid the conservation of Southern Bristle-Tyrants and to ensure a water supply for millions of people.…”

Section: Conservation and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…Besides its direct effect on biodiversity, the reduction of forests caused by the new FC can diminish rainfall (Dobrovolski and Rattis 2015). The decrease in rainfall on the Southern Bristle-Tyrant range may be caused by both deforestation in Amazonia and the Cerrado, as well as local deforestation in the Atlantic Forest (Dobrovolski and Rattis 2015).…”

Section: Conservation and Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding the distribution of a threatened bird at multiple levels: A hierarchical analysis of the ecological niche of the Santa Marta Bush-Tyrant (Myiotheretes pernix)

et al. 2015

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Artículo de publicación ISIAn understanding of the ecological factors determining bird species’ distributions is essential for making informed conservation decisions. These data are especially important for range-restricted species, such as the Santa Marta Bush- Tyrant (Myiotheretes pernix), a threatened endemic of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM) in Colombia. Here we adopt a novel hierarchical analysis to describe the bush-tyrant’s ecological niche and infer the regional and local determinants of its limited distribution. We first describe habitat selection based on local habitat use and microhabitats used for foraging. We then use a geoprocessing modeling algorithm to combine habitat selection data with a climatic niche model. The resulting model produced an index of habitat suitability, which we converted into a predicted geographic distribution. Santa Marta Bush-Tyrants showed no clear habitat preferences, but favored forested and secondary growth habitats over open areas, at elevations between 2,100 and 3,300 m. The species’ predicted distribution was restricted to the northern flanks of the SNSM, with an estimated extent of ~352 km2. This estimate is more restricted than previous estimates (570 km2), but does not alter the species’ status as Endangered based on IUCN criteria. The model predicted that the presence of Santa Marta Bush-Tyrants was regionally dependent on cold and humid climates, with low annual variation in temperature and precipitation. Locally, the species’ presence was determined by the availability of habitat edges between forests and open areas. Conservation actions should aim to reduce rates of forest loss, while maintaining the presence of areas with good light and exposed perches, microhabitat conditions typically found in habitat edges or areas of natural disturbance. An explicit integration of quantitative data on habitat use and foraging patterns into niche models would help to obtain more realistic and detailed projections of the occupied distribution of range-restricted birds

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Water collapse in Brazil: the danger of relying on what you neglect

Cited by 59 publications

References 14 publications

Quantifying the global atmospheric power budget

Quantifying the global atmospheric power budget

Water Availability of São Francisco River Basin Based on a Space-Borne Geodetic Sensor

Understanding the distribution of a threatened bird at multiple levels: A hierarchical analysis of the ecological niche of the Santa Marta Bush-Tyrant (Myiotheretes pernix)

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