Was the Alcohol Psychoses Decline in Russia Attributable to Alcohol Control Policy?

Abstract

IntroductionSince 2003, Russia has experienced steep decline in alcohol psychoses incidence rate (APIR) and a parallel downward trend in the population drinking, driven mainly by a decrease in vodka (spirits) consumption. A coincidence in these trends allows us to hypothesize that the reduction in the APIR during recent decade might be attributed to the shift in the structure of consumption from vodka towards beer as a result of alcohol policy reforms.ObjectivesIn this study we will test the hypothesis of beverage-specific effect on APIR by analyzing Russian's time series data.MethodsTime-series analytical modeling techniques (ARIMA) were used to examine the relation between the sale of different alcoholic beverages (vodka, wine, beer) and APIR between 1980 and 2010.ResultsThe analysis suggests that of the three beverages vodka alone was associated with APIR. The estimated effect of vodka sale on the alcohol psychoses rate is clearly statistically significant: a 1 liter increase in vodka sale would result in a 27.4% increase in the APIR.ConclusionsThe findings from this study provide support for the hypothesis that the shift in the structure of consumption from vodka towards beer as a result of alcohol control measures has had a positive impact on bringing down the APIR in Russia during recent decade. This research evidence also suggest that Russian government's attempt to curb the high level of alcohol-related problems have been successful and provide additional evidence that pricing policy may be an effective strategy to reduce an alcohol-related burden.

The Effects of Alcohol Taxation and Pricing Policies on Unrecorded Alcohol Consumption in Russia

“…Research from Russia has indicated that low-income groups of the population and heavy drinkers in Russia are likeliest to consume unrecorded alcohol, and this effect is especially evident during the economic crisis [8]. It is, however, unclear how much of the increase in unrecorded alcohol consumption in Russia was driven by alcohol policy measures and how much was an effect of the economic downturn.…”

“…In January 2010, the minimum price on vodka was introduced. Most importantly, excise tax rates on vodka in Russia have been increased [8]. Further, new set of amendments to the 171 Federal Low were adopted in 2011 [9].…”

The Differential Effects of Beverage Type on Alcohol Poisoning Mortality in Russia

“…A coincidence in the vodka consumption and mortality trends allows several experts to hypothesize that the reduction in the number of alcohol poisoning deaths during the last decade might be attributed to the implementation of the alcohol policy reforms, which increased government control over the alcohol market by raising taxes and restricting sales [2,40,41]. In his recent study [42] concluded that the implementation of alcohol policies was responsible for a decline in deaths due to alcohol poisoning.…”

Economic Availability of Alcohol and Alcoholism Incidence Rates in Russia

“…Russia has one of the highest incidence of alcoholism in Europe [2], which may be explained by high overall alcohol consumption and prevalence of binge drinking of vodka [3][4][5][6]. Currently, there are approximately 5 million alcoholics (alcohol dependent individuals) in Russia, and the number of heavy drinkers is three to four times that number [2].…”

“…Most experts agree that the affordability of vodka is one of the most important predictor of the dramatic fluctuations in Russian mortality during the last decades [3][4][5][6]15]. There are, however, suggestions that heavy drinkers are less responsible to prices compared to the general population [16].…”