Was Germany’s Lockdown in Spring 2020 Necessary? How Bad Data Quality Can Turn a Simulation Into a Delusion that Shapes the Future

Kuhbandner, Christof; Homburg, Stefan; Walach, Harald; Hockertz, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102879

Cited by 24 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…From this distinction, an increased responsibility of the epidemic relative to the meteorological modeller ensues, as pointed out in Ref. [41]. Based on an in-depth study of a real-world example, it exemplifies how self-fulfilling prophecies can be a particularly harmful type of predictions.…”

Section: Disease Control Paradoxmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…As the examples suggest, social interventions are notorious for their hard to assess [31] and hard to justify cost-benefit ratios among the experts [32][33][34][35]. Despite some initial empirical [36], but more often lopsidedly model-based 12 , propositions to the contrary, also the latest epidemic does not seem to provide a plausible exception to this rule [37][38][39][40][41][42].…”

Section: Sir-storm In a Teacupmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Encouraged by the ease with which one can come up with phenomenological fits to the stereotype patterns of infection waves, many authors have apparently failed to realize that the mathematically toxic mix of heterogeneities with locally exponential growth dynamics may render forecasting and forecasting-based risk management and disease control rather subtle tasks, even retrospectively! 21 Associated common fallacies of data analysis are widely documented and supported by empirical surveys, which underscores the "need to shift study design toward prioritizing the handling of data sources rather than refining models" [31,38,41,96,97].…”

Section: Disease Control Paradoxmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Superspreading and Heterogeneity in Epidemics

Kroy¹

2022

Preprint

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Section: Disease Control Paradoxmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Sir-storm In a Teacupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Disease Control Paradoxmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Superspreading and Heterogeneity in Epidemics

Kroy¹

2022

Preprint

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“…Whether such NPIs are at all effective is questionable. [48][49][50][51][52][53] A third reason was to help eradicate the virus. Recent data show that the vaccines do not help break transmissions chains and thus cannot really eradicate the virus.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why do people consent to receiving SARS-CoV2 vaccinations? A Representative Survey in Germany

Walach¹,

Ofner²,

Ruof³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Objective: to answer the question: Why do people consent to being vaccinated with novel vaccines against SARS-CoV2? Design: Representative survey Setting: Online panel Participants: 1032 respondents of the general German population Method: a representative survey among German citizens in November/December 2021 which resulted in 1032 complete responses on vaccination status, socio-demographic parameters and opinions about the COVID-19 situation. Results: Almost 83% of the respondents were vaccinated. The major motivation was fear of medical consequences of an infection and the wish to lead a normal life again. The major motivation to be not vaccinated was the fear of side effects and skepticism about long-term effectiveness and safety. Sixteen percent of vaccinated respondents reported some serious side effect, while more than 30% reported health improvements, mostly due to the relief of psychological stress and social reintegration. We also validated a “Corona Orthodoxy Score – COS” consisting of 7 items reflecting opinions on Covid-19. The scale is reliable (alpha = 0.76) and unidimensional. The COS was a highly significant predictor of vaccination status and readiness to be vaccinated in a multivariable logistic regression model. Those who were vaccinated were more likely to live in smaller households (OR = 0.82, p=0.024), had a higher income (OR = 1.27, p<0.001), a higher COS score (OR 1.4, p<0.0001) and utilized less alternative media (OR = 0.44, p=0.0024) and scientific publications (OR=0.42, p=0.011) as information sources. Conclusions: The major motives for being vaccinated are fear of medical symptoms and the wish to lead a normal life. Those not wanting to be vaccinated cite a lack of knowledge regarding long-term safety and side effects as reasons. This can likely only be overcome by careful and active long-term efficacy and safety monitoring.

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“…Particularly in the early stages of the pandemic, these types of simulations were discussed in Germany with great publicity and adduced by political decision-makers to impose protective measures like contact restrictions, temporary business closures, or curfews. However, criticism [57] points to a flawed database, which misled the simulations and thus characterized the subsequent containment measures as misguided, accompanied by significant consequences for civil liberties and the economy.…”

Section: Potential Consequences Of Data Quality Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%