Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

Ryan, Sadie J.; Carlson, Colin J.; Tesla, Blanka; Bonds, Matthew H.; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Johnson, Leah R.; Murdock, Courtney C.

doi:10.1111/gcb.15384

Cited by 70 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(105 reference statements)

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“…ZIKV is an important emerging flavivirus transmitted by infected mosquitoes from the genus Aedes that can cause severe complications in humans [ 1 ]. The virus has caused recent outbreaks of the disease worldwide and their future expansion to novel geographical areas is highly possible [ 4 ]. Several different ZIKV vaccine candidates under different platforms have now been developed and tested in preclinical and clinical trials, but none of them have been licensed yet.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ZIKV is transmitted to humans primarily through the bite of infected mosquitoes from genus Aedes , mainly by A. albopictus and A. aegypti , both widely distributed throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world, with the habitat of A. albopictus extending further into cool temperate regions [ 1 ]. Based on model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050 [ 4 ]. Furthermore, ZIKV can also be transmitted from mother to child during pregnancy or spread through sexual contact, breastfeeding, or blood transfusion [ 1 , 2 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The combined vaccination protocol of DNA/MVA expressing Zika virus structural proteins as efficient inducer of T and B cell immune responses

Pérez

Martín-Acebes

Poderoso

et al. 2021

Emerging Microbes & Infections

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Zika virus (ZIKV) is a is a mosquito-borne pathogen with public health importance due to the high risk of its mosquito vector dissemination and the severe neurological and teratogenic sequelae associated with infection. Vaccines with broad immune specificity and control against this re-emerging virus are needed. Here, we described that mice immunized with a priming dose of a DNA plasmid mammalian expression vector encoding ZIKV prM-E antigens (DNA-ZIKV) followed by a booster dose of a modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) vector expressing the same prM-E ZIKV antigens (MVA-ZIKV) induced broad, polyfunctional and long-lasting ZIKV-specific CD4 + and CD8 + T-cell immune responses, with high levels of CD4 + T follicular helper cells, together with the induction of neutralizing antibodies. All those immune parameters were significantly stronger in the heterologous DNA-ZIKV/MVA-ZIKV immunization group compared to the homologous prime/boost immunizations regimens. Collectively, these results provided an optimized immunization protocol able to induce high levels of ZIKV-specific T-cell responses, as well as neutralizing antibodies and reinforce the combined use of DNA-based vectors and MVA-ZIKV as promising prophylactic vaccination schedule against ZIKV.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The combined vaccination protocol of DNA/MVA expressing Zika virus structural proteins as efficient inducer of T and B cell immune responses

Pérez

Martín-Acebes

Poderoso

et al. 2021

Emerging Microbes & Infections

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“…Global climate change may also increase the incidence of prenatal viral infection [ 131 ]. Previous modeling of Aedes -borne pathogens, such as Dengue, suggests that climate change increases the growth rate of Aedes , and in turn Zika virus, by lowering the outbreak threshold [ 124 , 132 ].…”

Section: Public Health Community and Environmental Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Temperature differences may produce a larger population of Aedes species, and increase exposure to potential virus-carrying vectors [ 132 ]. While considering various socioeconomic scenarios, approximately 1.3 billion new people are predicted to shift into geographic regions with favorable conditions for Zika and other viral infections [ 131 ]. Along with temperature changes, and the expected increase in vector density, there is a higher risk for local transmission in Europe and North America [ 132 ].…”

Section: Public Health Community and Environmental Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Causes of Phenotypic Variability and Disabilities after Prenatal Viral Infections

Kousa

Hossain

2021

TropicalMed

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Prenatal viral infection can lead to a spectrum of neurodevelopmental disabilities or fetal demise. These can include microencephaly, global developmental delay, intellectual disability, refractory epilepsy, deafness, retinal defects, and cortical-visual impairment. Each of these clinical conditions can occur on a semi-quantitative to continuous spectrum, from mild to severe disease, and often as a collective of phenotypes. Such serious outcomes result from viruses’ overlapping neuropathology and hosts’ common neuronal and gene regulatory response to infections. The etiology of variability in clinical outcomes is not yet clear, but it may be related to viral, host, vector, and/or environmental risk and protective factors that likely interact in multiple ways. In this perspective of the literature, we work toward understanding the causes of phenotypic variability after prenatal viral infections by highlighting key aspects of the viral lifecycle that can affect human disease, with special attention to the 2015 Zika pandemic. Therefore, this work offers important insights into how viral infections and environmental teratogens affect the prenatal brain, toward our ultimate goal of preventing neurodevelopmental disabilities.

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“…Environmental change is predicted to affect the spatiotemporal distributions of ectotherms (Deutsch et al 2008), including disease vectors (Mordecai et al 2020, WHO 2020. For example, recent studies suggest that climatic warming may increase the thermal suitability for Zika virus transmission, leading to 1.3 billion more people being at risk of exposure by 2050 (Ryan et al 2021). Such predictions often arise from disease transmission models that incorporate thermal performance curves (TPCs) for vector life history traits, such as juvenile development and mortality, which together define the TPC of maximal population growth rate (rm, a measure of population fitness; Savage et al 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of resource depletion on the thermal response of mosquito population fitness

et al. 2021

Preprint

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1. A population′s maximal growth rate (rm) depends on the survivorship, development, and reproduction of its individuals. In ectotherms, these (functional) traits respond predictably to temperature, which provides a basis for predicting how climatic warming could affect natural populations, including disease vectors and the diseases they transmit. 2. Such predictions generally arise from mathematical models that incorporate the temperature–dependence of traits (thermal performance curves) measured under laboratory conditions. Therefore, the accuracy of these predictions depends on the relevance of lab-measured trait thermal performance curves to natural conditions. However, the joint effect of temperature and resource availability—another key limiting environmental factor in nature—on traits is largely unknown. 3. We investigated how larval competition for ecologically–realistic depleting resources affects the thermal performance of rm and its underlying life history traits in the disease vector in Aedes aegypti. We show that competition at food concentrations below a certain threshold drastically depresses rm across the entire temperature range, causes it to peak at a lower temperature, and narrows the breadth of temperatures over which rm is positive (the thermal niche breath). 4. This resource-dependence of the thermal performance curve of rm is driven primarily by the fact that competition delays development and increases juvenile mortality. This is compounded by reduced size at maturity, which in turn decreases adult lifespan and fecundity. 5. These results show that intensified larval competition in depleting resource environments can significantly affect the temperature–dependence of rm by modulating the thermal responses of underlying traits in a predictable way. This has important implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on population dynamics in the field of not just disease vectors, but holometabolous insects in general.

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Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Cited by 70 publications

References 58 publications

The combined vaccination protocol of DNA/MVA expressing Zika virus structural proteins as efficient inducer of T and B cell immune responses

The combined vaccination protocol of DNA/MVA expressing Zika virus structural proteins as efficient inducer of T and B cell immune responses

Causes of Phenotypic Variability and Disabilities after Prenatal Viral Infections

The effect of resource depletion on the thermal response of mosquito population fitness

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