Warming shelf seas drive the subtropicalization of European pelagic fish communities

Montero‐Serra, Ignasi; Edwards, Martin; Genner, Martin J.

doi:10.1111/gcb.12747

Cited by 104 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The redistribution of species in response to temperature change, and in some cases also fishing pressure, has led to regional changes in species richness, particularly in northern hemisphere high-latitude spring-bloom systems (ter Hofstede et al, 2010;Simpson et al, 2011;Montero-Serra et al, 2015), and also to changes in community composition (Magurran et al, 2015). The high-latitude warming in the northern hemisphere over the past three decades has led to an increase in the size of fish stocks associated with some regional fisheries (Hoegh-Guldberg et al, 2014), and this may continue with further warming (Cheung et al, 2009;García Molinos et al, 2015) for some time into the future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

et al. 2016

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Climate change is driving changes in the physical and chemical properties of the ocean that have consequences for marine ecosystems. Here, we review evidence for the responses of marine life to recent climate change across ocean regions, from tropical seas to polar oceans. We consider observed changes in calcification rates, demography, abundance, distribution, and phenology of marine species. We draw on a database of observed climate change impacts on marine species, supplemented with evidence in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We discuss factors that limit or facilitate species' responses, such as fishing pressure, the availability of prey, habitat, light and other resources, and dispersal by ocean currents. We find that general trends in species' responses are consistent with expectations from climate change, including shifts in distribution to higher latitudes and to deeper locations, advances in spring phenology, declines in calcification, and increases in the abundance of warm-water species. The volume and type of evidence associated with species responses to climate change is variable across ocean regions and taxonomic groups, with predominance of evidence derived from the heavily-studied north Atlantic Ocean. Most investigations of the impact of climate change being associated with the impacts of changing temperature, with few observations of effects of changing oxygen, wave climate, precipitation (coastal waters), or ocean acidification. Observations of species responses that have been linked to anthropogenic climate change are widespread, but are still lacking for some taxonomic groups (e.g., phytoplankton, benthic invertebrates, marine mammals).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

et al. 2016

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“…Anchovy and sardine have moved northward into the North Sea and adjacent waters in the past few decades (Alheit et al 2012, Beare et al 2004, Montero-Serra et al 2015, Petitgas et al 2012). This shift is consistent with warming resulting from climate change.…”

Section: Distribution Shiftsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate, Anchovy, and Sardine

Checkley

Asch

Rykaczewski

2017

Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci.

175

129

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Anchovy and sardine populated productive ocean regions over hundreds of thousands of years under a naturally varying climate, and are now subject to climate change of equal or greater magnitude occurring over decades to centuries. We hypothesize that anchovy and sardine populations are limited in size by the supply of nitrogen from outside their habitats originating from upwelling, mixing, and rivers. Projections of the responses of anchovy and sardine to climate change rely on a range of model types and consideration of the effects of climate on lower trophic levels, the effects of fishing on higher trophic levels, and the traits of these two types of fish. Distribution, phenology, nutrient supply, plankton composition and production, habitat compression, fishing, and acclimation and adaptation may be affected by ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and altered hydrology. Observations of populations and evaluation of model skill are essential to resolve the effects of climate change on these fish.

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“…In particular, global sea warming has modified the distribution and phenology of several marine fish species and plankton communities (Beaugrand et al, 2002;Edwards and Richardson, 2004;Perry et al, 2005;Cheung et al, 2013;Chust et al, 2013;Munday et al, 2013;Montero-Serra et al, 2015). Numerous species have shifted their distributions northward to follow the displacement of their thermal habitat-also called niche tracking (Monahan and Tingley, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in Response to Ocean Warming

et al. 2016

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North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored the influence of temperature change on mackerel's spawning distribution (western and southern spawning components of the stock) between 1992 and 2013, and projected how it may change under future climate change scenarios. We developed three generalized additive models (GAMs): (i) a spatiotemporal model to reconstruct the spawning distribution for the north-east Atlantic stock over the period 1992-2013, to estimate the rate of shift; (ii) a thermal habitat model to assess if spawning mackerel have tracked their thermal spawning-niche; and (iii) a niche-based model to project future spawning distribution under two predicted climate change scenarios. Our findings showed that mackerel spawning activity has shifted northward at a rate of 15.9 ± 0.9 km/decade between 1992 and 2013. Similarly, using the thermal habitat model, we detected a northward shift of the thermal spawning-niche. This indicates that mackerel has spawned at higher latitudes to partially tracking their thermal spawning-niche, at a rate of 28.0 ± 9.0 km/ • C of sea warming. Under future scenarios (mid and end of the century), the extrapolation of the niche-based model to coupled hydroclimatic and biogeochemical models indicates that center of gravity of mackerel spawning distribution is expected to shift westward (32 to 117 km) and northward (0.5 to 328 km), but with high variability according to scenarios and time frames. The future of the overall egg production in the area is uncertain (change from −9.3 to 12%). With the aim to allow the fishing industry to anticipate the future distribution of mackerel shoals during the spawning period, future research should focus on reducing uncertainty in projections.

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Warming shelf seas drive the subtropicalization of European pelagic fish communities

Cited by 104 publications

References 62 publications

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans

Climate, Anchovy, and Sardine

Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in Response to Ocean Warming

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