Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Dokulil, Martin T.; Marszelewski, Włodzimierz; Schmid, Martin; Bouffard, Damien; Merchant, Christopher J.

doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1966-4

Cited by 119 publications

(97 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Such a trend is common to the overall European region (Woolway et al, 2017). A weak, yet significant, decreasing trend in local annual precipitation has been detected (Mann-Kendall = À0.15, p < .004).…”

Section: Study Site and Climatementioning

confidence: 77%

Seeking alternative stable states in a deep lake

et al. 2018

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Hysteresis linked to alternative stable states may explain delays in water quality recovery despite reduced nutrient loadings in shallow lakes. Because deep lakes are assumed to be less prone to critical transitions, similar delays are attributed to the confounding effects of additional environmental disturbances, such as climate warming. Herein, we hypothesised that the lack of evidence of nutrient‐driven alternative stable states in a deep lake arises from the fact that the nutrient threshold that causes the critical transition is lower than the nutrient threshold in shallow lakes. Thereby, it might have been crossed much earlier in the lake history. To test this hypothesis, we focused on the palaeo‐ecological trajectory of Lake Varese, which is a deep, hypereutrophicated peri‐alpine lake undergoing restoration. Proxies for drivers of ecological state (i.e. total phosphorus—TP—through diatoms and pigments) and ecological responses (Cladocera), as well as a repeatable analysis, were used to identify transitions and to distinguish hysteretic delays from those of the ecosystems responding to additional constraints over the past century. Our results suggest spatial heterogeneity in the ecological response. The littoral habitats changed abruptly and prematurely for a low TP threshold, causing a shift that met many criteria of a flickering‐type critical transition. Soon after the littoral shift, a striking increase in the lake phosphorous concentration was recorded and drove the pelagic assemblage towards a new state. This transition was abrupt, and the pelagic communities exhibited limited evidence of recovery; however, we found no evidence of hysteresis. Therefore, the modern ecological trajectory of the pelagic communities is currently driven by climate warming. This detailed analysis allowed us to go beyond the general pattern that links ecological responses to drivers and suggest that a nonlinear transition following eutrophication can take place in a deep lake synchronously with linear transitions. Instead of triggering a new regime shift, climate warming, to which pelagic habitats are more sensitive than littoral ones, has driven the lake further from its safe operating space.

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Section: Study Site and Climatementioning

confidence: 77%

Seeking alternative stable states in a deep lake

et al. 2018

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“…The use of long‐term linear trends may obscure the identification and interpretation of interannual fluctuations, anomalous interdecadal warming/cooling periods, and regime shifts (North et al ; Van Cleave et al ; Woolway et al, ). This suggests that linear regressions should be used with caution to avoid the risk of oversimplifying the true temperature dynamics.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the predictability of lake surface temperature using air temperature in a changing climate: A case study for Lake Tahoe (U.S.A.)

Piccolroaz

Healey

Lenters

et al. 2017

Limnology & Oceanography

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Can we predict long‐term trends of lake surface temperature based on air temperature alone? We explore this question by analyzing the performance of a hybrid model (air2water) as a predictive tool for defining scenarios of lake surface temperature in the framework of climate change studies. Employing Lake Tahoe (U.S.A.) as a case study, we apply the model using different air temperature datasets (in situ measurements, gridded observations, and downscaled General Circulation Models). Through a data‐driven calibration of the model parameters based on surface water temperature records, we show that air2water provides good performance (root mean square error ∼ 0.5°C, on a monthly scale) regardless of the input dataset. The model is able to accurately capture the historical long‐term trend and interannual fluctuations over decades (from 1969 to present), using only 7 yr of monthly measurements of surface water temperature for calibration. Additionally, when used to predict future surface water temperature of the lake, air2water produces the same projections irrespective of the air temperature dataset used to drive the model. This is certainly desirable, but not immediately expected when using a relatively simple model. Overall, the results suggest the high potential and robustness of air2water as a predictive tool for climate change assessment. Lake surface temperature warming of up to 1.1°C (RCP 4.5) and 2.9°C (RCP 8.5) was simulated at the end of the 21st century during summer months in Lake Tahoe. Such a scenario, if realized, would lead to serious consequences on lake water chemistry, primary productivity, plankton community structure, and nutrient cycling.

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“…, Woolway et al. ). Relatively few broad‐scale studies have examined lake ecosystem responses to both temperature and precipitation and have often used just one response variable, a relatively homogenous study area, long‐term climate averages, or a low number of years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographic patterns of the climate sensitivity of lakes

McCullough

Cheruvelil

Collins

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Climate change is a well‐recognized threat to lake ecosystems and, although there likely exists geographic variation in the sensitivity of lakes to climate, broad‐scale, long‐term studies are needed to understand this variation. Further, the potential mediating role of local to regional ecological context on these responses is not well documented. In this study, we examined relationships between climate and water clarity in 365 lakes from 1981 to 2010 in two distinct regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. We asked (1) How do climate–water‐clarity relationships vary across watersheds and between two geographic regions? and (2) Do certain characteristics make some lakes more climate sensitive than others? We found strong differences in climate–water‐clarity relationships both within and across the two regions. For example, in the northeastern region, water clarity was often negatively correlated with summer precipitation (median correlation = −0.32, n = 160 lakes), but was not correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = 0.09, n = 205 lakes). In the midwestern region, water clarity was not related to summer precipitation (median correlation = −0.04), but was often negatively correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = −0.18). There were few strong relationships between local and sub‐regional ecological context and a lake's sensitivity to climate. For example, ecological context variables explained just 16–18% of variation in summer precipitation sensitivity, which was most related to total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, lake depth, and hydrology in both regions. Sensitivity to summer maximum temperature was even less predictable in both regions, with 4% or less of variation explained using all ecological context variables. Overall, we identified differences in the climate sensitivity of lakes across regions and found that local and sub‐regional ecological context weakly influences the sensitivity of lakes to climate. Our findings suggest that local to regional drivers may combine to influence the sensitivity of lake ecosystems to climate change, and that sensitivities among lakes are highly variable within and across regions. This variability suggests that lakes are sensitive to different aspects of climate change (temperature vs. precipitation) and that responses of lakes to climate are heterogeneous and complex.

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Warming of Central European lakes and their response to the 1980s climate regime shift

Cited by 119 publications

References 52 publications

Seeking alternative stable states in a deep lake

Seeking alternative stable states in a deep lake

On the predictability of lake surface temperature using air temperature in a changing climate: A case study for Lake Tahoe (U.S.A.)

Geographic patterns of the climate sensitivity of lakes

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