Warming Break Trends and Fractional Integration in the Northern, Southern, and Global Temperature Anomaly Series

Gil-Alana, Luís A.

doi:10.1175/2007jtecha1025.1

Cited by 21 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…To a lesser extent, fractionally integration has also been advanced as a possible representation of the data generating process of global and hemispheric temperature series [29,30,55,74,75]. Nevertheless, it is important to note that the use of fractionally integrated models has been limited to the detection of climate change, and the notion of fractional cointegration has not yet been applied to investigate the attribution of climate change.…”

Section: Early Studies On the Detection And Attribution Of Climate Chmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods

Estrada

Perron

2014

Bol. Soc. Mat. Mex.

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An ever-growing body of evidence regarding observed changes in the climate system has been gathered over the last three decades, and large modeling efforts have been carried to explore how climate may evolve during the present century. The impacts from both observed weather and climate endured during the twentieth century and the magnitude of the potential future impacts of climate change have made this phenomenon of high interest for the policy-makers and the society at large. Two fundamental questions arise for understanding the nature of this problem and the appropriate strategies to address it: Is there a long-term warming signal in the observed climate, or is it the product of natural variability alone? If so, how much of this warming signal can be attributed to anthropogenic activities? As discussed in this review, these questions are intrinsically related to the study of the time-series properties of climate and In celebration of "Mathematics of Planet Earth-2013".

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Section: Early Studies On the Detection And Attribution Of Climate Chmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods

Estrada

Perron

2014

Bol. Soc. Mat. Mex.

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“…Conventionally, it is treated as a deterministic straight line, but a number of authors investigate this issue more profoundly. The results are contradictory and vary from purely deterministic through long-memory processes to a purely stochastic nature of the non-stationarity (Gordon, 1991;Woodward and Gray, 1995;Lanzante, 1996;Rodionov, 2004;Stern and Kaufmann, 1999;Zheng and Basher, 1999;Karl et al, 2000;Fomby and Vogelsang, 2002;Seidel and Lanzante, 2004;Tomé and Miranda, 2004;Cohn and Lins, 2005;Gao and Hawthorne, 2006;Mills, 2006Mills, , 2007Gil-Alana, 2008a, 2008b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

1963: The break point of the Northern Hemisphere temperature trend during the twentieth century

Ivanov

Evtimov

2009

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Besides gradually, climate can also change abruptly. The global surface temperature series is a major indicator of such changes. Using rigorous statistical tools, we show that during the twentieth century the time series of annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature is well described by a trend-stationary process, but the trend line breaks in 1963. After six transitory years, in 1970, the temperature course locks up into a new regime with a triple linear warming rate. For the emergence and abruptness of the break we reveal the key roles of the Mount Agung eruption and the interannual to interdecadal changes of the major modes and patterns of climate variability. We offer an abrupt climate shift scenario based on the adaptivity of climatic regimes against instant external forcings.

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“…The SPI values were plotted against the years using Excel 2010 software. Regression analysis has been used in combination with other tools to analyze trends in climatic parameters in Nigeria (Amadi et al, 2014;Afangideh et al, 2010;Bibi et al, 2014) and across the globe (Durlo, 2006;Liu et al, 2006;Turkes et al, 2002;Gil-Alana 2008;Zhihua et al, 2013). The SPI is expressed as by McKee et al (1993):…”

Section: Spi Valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristic temporal variability and trend of annual rainfall series in Port Harcourt Nigeria, a tropical coastal location

Agbor¹,

Udo²,

Amadi³

2019

Glo. J. Earth Environ. Sci.

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Rainfall analysis over a locality provides useful information for sustainable water resources management over such an area. The paper is designed to examine the temporal variability of annual rainfall amount in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. Using monthly rainfall amount for a period of 41 years, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and other statistical tools were used to evaluate anomalies in the annual rainfall amount for Port Harcourt, Nigeria during 1972 to 2012. Simple statistical techniques were used to evaluate the trend and rainfall variability index over the period of the study. The trend in rainfall series is statistically defined by the function Y = 2.180x + 2392, indicating an increase of 2.180 mm per year. The year 1993 recorded the highest SPI value of +3.369 while the lowest SPI was-1.420 recorded in 1983. The city witnessed sequences of distinct cycles of wet and dry spells with dominant dry spells. The SPI values present mild to severe anomalies from the normal. The Port Harcourt annual rainfall series requires effective monitoring in such a manner that timely warnings and swift response actions are provided in the run-up to the occurrence of those extreme events and their associated risks and damning consequences. These are necessary to guarantee effective risk reduction and management in the area.

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Warming Break Trends and Fractional Integration in the Northern, Southern, and Global Temperature Anomaly Series

Cited by 21 publications

References 43 publications

Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods

Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods

1963: The break point of the Northern Hemisphere temperature trend during the twentieth century

Characteristic temporal variability and trend of annual rainfall series in Port Harcourt Nigeria, a tropical coastal location

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