War and the Cycle of Relative Power

Abstract

Relative nation-state capability follows a generalized nonlinear pattern over long periods. Empirical evidence indicates that between 1816–1975 nine major powers have traversed at least a segment of this relative capability cycle of political ascendancy, maturation and decline. Specific changes in a state's relative capability dynamics increase its propensity to initiate extensive war. Whether the extensiveness of a war is defined in terms of duration, intensity or magnitude, major powers are likely to initiate more extensive wars at the critical inflection and turning points on the curve of relative capability where the linear role perceptions held by government and society change pervasively. This analysis involves a new theoretical focus for examining the causes of war, shifting attention from interactions between nations to the consequences of changes in relative power and to the political evolution of the nation-state itself.

Scales of climate impacts

“…Many indices reflecting combinations of these basic rates are also possible. Illustrated are the results of a particularly interesting study by Doran and Parsons (1980) in which the rise and fall of various nations' shares of total world political power is given objective quantitative expression. Figure 4 also shows a more conventional expression of social time scales: the aggregate annual growth rates of national economies, food production, and population (World Bank, 1982).…”

The self‐amplifying feedback between societal militarization and violent foreign policy: Great Britain and the United States, 1900–1985

“…Literature on long cycles (see Thompson & Modelski, 1989), Power Cycles (Doran & Parsons, 1980), Hegemonic Stability (Gilpin, 1981), and Power Transitions (Organski & Kugler, 1980) all contribute to the theoretical underpinnings of this relationship. For example, the argument that a declining hegemonic power in the global arena will respond by more frequently resorting to the use of force has received a fair amount of attention (eg; Gilpin, 1981;Kennedy, 1987).…”

Scale Relationships in the Interactions of Climate, Ecosystems, and Societies

“…:391;30-Ibid. :216;31-Fisher and Pry, 1970;32-Pry, 1973;33-Marchetti, 1979;34-Marchetti, 1983;35-Lebergott, 1966, cited in Johnston andKilby, 1975:Ap. Doran and Parsons, 1980;40-World Bank, 1982: Tables 2,17; Characteristic time scale is reported as an "e-folding time," Ts, in units of years. Ts is simply the time required for the state of the system to change by a factor equal to the base of the natural logarithm e. Some care, however, is necessary to apply this definition consistently across the wide range of climatic, ecological and social phenomena compared in this paper (see Appendix).…”